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Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0218

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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0218.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "429045" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9379) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 8, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 330,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, January 21–30, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,705 adults, ± 3.2% margin of error – 1,042 likely voters, ± 4.35% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and candidates  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, the state budget, sexual harassment in the state legislature, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election preferences Gavin Newsom Antonio Villaraigosa John Chiang Travis Allen John Cox Delaine Eastin Doug Ose Someone else (vol.) Don’t know 9 8 7 4 3 1 0 23 21 24 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 54 26 71 15 0 All likely voters Dem 38 36 Rep 44 33 69 24 Satisfied Not satisfied 54 50 29 20 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Favorability of gubernatorial candidates % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 13 8 0 Travis Allen 27 17 John Chiang 11 11 John Cox Favorable opinion Unfavorable opinion 14 16 40 30 8 11 40 29 Delaine Eastin Gavin Newsom Doug Ose Antonia Villaraigosa 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 33% Dianne Feinstein 46% Someone else 3% Kevin de León 17% % likely voters Candidate favorability Favorable opinion 100 Unfavorable opinion Never heard of 80 Don’t know 60 45 40 20 16 19 19 0 Kevin de León 52 38 74 Dianne Feinstein 9 Candidate experience % likely voters % likely voters Which of these is most important to you? That the candidate has experience in elected office, or that the candidate has experience running a business? 100 80 60 44 40 43 20 0 Experience in elected office Experience running a business 62 49 43 31 100 84 80 60 Experience in elected office Experience running a business 65 56 40 25 20 11 36 0 Dem Rep Ind 10 Important candidate qualities Which of these is most important to you? Would it be the candidate’s experience, the candidate’s character, the candidate’s political party, or the candidate’s stands on the issues? % likely voters 100 80 60 60 40 20 17 16 6 0 Candidate's Candidate's Candidate's Candidate's stands on experience character political issues party 1 Other/it depends (vol.) 1 Don't know 11 Repealing gas tax increase In 2017, the California Legislature passed and Governor Brown signed into law an increase in the state’s gasoline tax. Do you favor or oppose repealing the recently passed increase in the state gas tax? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 47 48 All likely voters 56 39 Dem 61 36 Rep Favor Oppose 52 43 Ind 12 Taxing commercial properties at market rate Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 46 43 All likely voters 53 39 Dem 56 34 Rep Favor Oppose 45 39 Ind 13 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 14 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 72 % 60 26 40 32 26 27 31 21 21 20 15 7 10 18 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown 100 California Legislature 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 80 76 69 60 56 51 % 60 56 51 57 50 47 40 40 37 26 24 20 20 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 State and national prospects for working together and accomplishing a lot in 2018 Do you think that ____ will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 28 Yes, will be able to work together No, will not be able to work together 67 29 0 Governor Brown and the state legislature President Trump and the US Congress 17 Top issue for the governor and legislature Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2018? % all adults 40 2017 2018 20 20 14 14 9 11 8 7 5 6 3 0 Immigration Jobs, economy Education, State budget, Infrastructure schools, deficit, taxes teachers 18 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 6% Wrong direction 38% Right direction 57% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 10% Bad times 35% Good times 56% All adults 19 Perception that the state budget situation is a big problem % all adults 80 60 40 43 20 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 20 Support for the governor’s proposed budget Governor Brown recently proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes $132 billion dollars in general fund spending… In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 67 24 66 28 81 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 49 39 62 27 Rep Ind 21 Support for spending gas tax revenue The governor’s proposed budget plan includes spending $4.6 billion dollars from the recently passed gas tax and vehicle fees to repair roads, highways and bridges...Overall, do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 70 65 33 26 All adults Likely voters 80 18 Dem 55 40 Favor Oppose 68 28 Rep Ind 22 Sexual harassment in the state legislature How closely are you following news about sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature? 80 Fairly closely Very closely 60 % 40 20 0 28 18 All adults 29 27 Dem 42 14 Rep 37 35 13 22 Ind Likely voters Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democratic leaders in the state legislature are currently handling the issue of sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature? Don't know 25% Approve 39% Disapprove 36% 23 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 65 31 58 39 83 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 73 53 42 21 Rep Ind 24 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Thinking about undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, do you favor or oppose the protections given by “DACA”—Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—which include protection from deportation and a work permit, if they pass a background check? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 85 81 17 13 All adults Likely voters 95 4 Dem Favor Oppose 80 58 38 16 Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Newsom and Villaraigosa are in a virtual tie in the top-two gubernatorial primary, but a quarter of likely voters are undecided. In the US Senate race, Feinstein continues to lead de León by double digits; a third of likely voters remain undecided.  Likely voters are divided about repealing the recent gas tax and about taxing commercial properties at current market value.  Most Californians favor the governor’s proposed budget and believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. However, expectations of cooperation are low for the president and congress.  Many are closely following news about sexual misconduct in the state legislature; Californians are divided about how Democratic leaders are handling this issue so far.  Californians are most likely to name immigration as the top issue facing the state today, and majorities across parties favor the DACA protections. 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 8, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Lunna Lopes (lopes@ppic.org; 415-291-4492) Thank you for your interest in this work. 29" } ["___content":protected]=> string(152) "

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0218

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(126) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-february-2018/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0218/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(13762) ["ID"]=> int(13762) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-02-08 09:18:25" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(13676) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(33) "Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0218" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0218" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0218.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "429045" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9379) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 8, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 330,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, January 21–30, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,705 adults, ± 3.2% margin of error – 1,042 likely voters, ± 4.35% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and candidates  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, the state budget, sexual harassment in the state legislature, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election preferences Gavin Newsom Antonio Villaraigosa John Chiang Travis Allen John Cox Delaine Eastin Doug Ose Someone else (vol.) Don’t know 9 8 7 4 3 1 0 23 21 24 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 54 26 71 15 0 All likely voters Dem 38 36 Rep 44 33 69 24 Satisfied Not satisfied 54 50 29 20 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Favorability of gubernatorial candidates % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 13 8 0 Travis Allen 27 17 John Chiang 11 11 John Cox Favorable opinion Unfavorable opinion 14 16 40 30 8 11 40 29 Delaine Eastin Gavin Newsom Doug Ose Antonia Villaraigosa 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 33% Dianne Feinstein 46% Someone else 3% Kevin de León 17% % likely voters Candidate favorability Favorable opinion 100 Unfavorable opinion Never heard of 80 Don’t know 60 45 40 20 16 19 19 0 Kevin de León 52 38 74 Dianne Feinstein 9 Candidate experience % likely voters % likely voters Which of these is most important to you? That the candidate has experience in elected office, or that the candidate has experience running a business? 100 80 60 44 40 43 20 0 Experience in elected office Experience running a business 62 49 43 31 100 84 80 60 Experience in elected office Experience running a business 65 56 40 25 20 11 36 0 Dem Rep Ind 10 Important candidate qualities Which of these is most important to you? Would it be the candidate’s experience, the candidate’s character, the candidate’s political party, or the candidate’s stands on the issues? % likely voters 100 80 60 60 40 20 17 16 6 0 Candidate's Candidate's Candidate's Candidate's stands on experience character political issues party 1 Other/it depends (vol.) 1 Don't know 11 Repealing gas tax increase In 2017, the California Legislature passed and Governor Brown signed into law an increase in the state’s gasoline tax. Do you favor or oppose repealing the recently passed increase in the state gas tax? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 47 48 All likely voters 56 39 Dem 61 36 Rep Favor Oppose 52 43 Ind 12 Taxing commercial properties at market rate Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 46 43 All likely voters 53 39 Dem 56 34 Rep Favor Oppose 45 39 Ind 13 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 14 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 72 % 60 26 40 32 26 27 31 21 21 20 15 7 10 18 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown 100 California Legislature 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 80 76 69 60 56 51 % 60 56 51 57 50 47 40 40 37 26 24 20 20 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 State and national prospects for working together and accomplishing a lot in 2018 Do you think that ____ will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 28 Yes, will be able to work together No, will not be able to work together 67 29 0 Governor Brown and the state legislature President Trump and the US Congress 17 Top issue for the governor and legislature Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2018? % all adults 40 2017 2018 20 20 14 14 9 11 8 7 5 6 3 0 Immigration Jobs, economy Education, State budget, Infrastructure schools, deficit, taxes teachers 18 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 6% Wrong direction 38% Right direction 57% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 10% Bad times 35% Good times 56% All adults 19 Perception that the state budget situation is a big problem % all adults 80 60 40 43 20 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 20 Support for the governor’s proposed budget Governor Brown recently proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes $132 billion dollars in general fund spending… In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 67 24 66 28 81 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 49 39 62 27 Rep Ind 21 Support for spending gas tax revenue The governor’s proposed budget plan includes spending $4.6 billion dollars from the recently passed gas tax and vehicle fees to repair roads, highways and bridges...Overall, do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 70 65 33 26 All adults Likely voters 80 18 Dem 55 40 Favor Oppose 68 28 Rep Ind 22 Sexual harassment in the state legislature How closely are you following news about sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature? 80 Fairly closely Very closely 60 % 40 20 0 28 18 All adults 29 27 Dem 42 14 Rep 37 35 13 22 Ind Likely voters Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democratic leaders in the state legislature are currently handling the issue of sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature? Don't know 25% Approve 39% Disapprove 36% 23 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 65 31 58 39 83 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 73 53 42 21 Rep Ind 24 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Thinking about undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, do you favor or oppose the protections given by “DACA”—Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—which include protection from deportation and a work permit, if they pass a background check? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 85 81 17 13 All adults Likely voters 95 4 Dem Favor Oppose 80 58 38 16 Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Newsom and Villaraigosa are in a virtual tie in the top-two gubernatorial primary, but a quarter of likely voters are undecided. In the US Senate race, Feinstein continues to lead de León by double digits; a third of likely voters remain undecided.  Likely voters are divided about repealing the recent gas tax and about taxing commercial properties at current market value.  Most Californians favor the governor’s proposed budget and believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. However, expectations of cooperation are low for the president and congress.  Many are closely following news about sexual misconduct in the state legislature; Californians are divided about how Democratic leaders are handling this issue so far.  Californians are most likely to name immigration as the top issue facing the state today, and majorities across parties favor the DACA protections. 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 8, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. 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