SAN FRANCISCO, February 22, 2024—With the March 5 election just weeks away, Democrats Adam Schiff and Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey lead in the top-two primary for the US Senate. Former president Donald Trump holds a sizeable lead in the Republican presidential primary and is poised to win all the state’s delegates to the Republican convention. Asked about Proposition 1, a ballot measure that would restructure funding for behavioral health services, nearly six in ten likely voters say they would vote to approve. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

In California’s top-two primary race for the US Senate, Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff is favored by 24 percent of likely voters while 19 percent say they would vote for Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter, 18 percent say professional baseball representative Steve Garvey, a Republican, and 10 percent say Democratic Congresswoman Barbara Lee.

Among Democratic likely voters, Schiff leads with 38 percent, followed by Porter (29%), Lee (14%), and Garvey (4%). Nearly half of Republican likely voters (49%) support Garvey, followed by Republicans James Bradley (10%) and Eric Early (10%). Porter and Schiff are both favored by 19 percent of independents, with 15 percent supporting Garvey and 9 percent supporting Lee.

“Democratic Congressmembers Adam Schiff and Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are in the lead in the top-two US Senate primary race,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy.

The new statewide survey also finds:

• Trump leads by a wide margin in the Republican presidential primary but trails Biden in the general election. Former president Donald Trump is the choice of nearly two-thirds of likely voters (64%) in the Republican presidential primary, far ahead of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (17%). If Trump receives more than 50 percent of the primary vote, he will secure all 169 of California’s delegates to the Republican convention.

  In a general election rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, the current president leads by a wide margin, with 55 percent of likely voters favoring Biden and 32 percent favoring Trump. Biden leads Trump among Democrats (82% to 8%) and independents (47% to 29%), while Trump leads among Republicans (78% to 13%).

  “More than six in ten Republican likely voters say they will vote for former president Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary,” Baldassare said. “President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 23 points in a potential November rematch.”

• Nearly six in ten likely voters support Prop 1 on behavioral health funding. Fifty-nine percent of California likely voters approve of Prop 1, a March ballot measure that would restructure funding for behavioral health services and provide bond funding for housing for homeless individuals, those at risk of being homeless, and veterans with mental health or substance abuse disorders; 38 percent would vote no. The measure is supported by majorities across regions (65% Los Angeles, 62% San Francisco Bay Area, 57% Inland Empire, 57% Orange/San Diego, 53% Central Valley), but views are split across partisan groups (76% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and 32% of Republicans approving).
• Economic conditions, homelessness, housing, crime, and immigration are top issues for Californians. Fewer than half approve of Governor Newsom and the legislature. Asked to name the most important issue for the governor and the state legislature to work on this year, Californians are most likely to say jobs, the economy, and inflation (20%), homelessness (18%), and housing costs and availability (14%), followed by crime, gangs, and drugs (11%) and immigration and illegal immigration (10%). Notably, the shares saying that housing costs, crime/gangs/drugs, and immigration are the top issue have each increased from one year ago (February 2023: 6% housing costs, 5% immigration, 4% crime/gangs/drugs).

  Fewer than half of adults (47%) and likely voters (48%) currently approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his job, down from a year ago (February 2023: 58% adults, 57% likely voters). Also, fewer than half (43% adults, 42% likely voters) approve of the job the state legislature is doing, similar to a year ago (February 2023: 49% adults, 49% likely voters).

  “Half of Californians name economic conditions, homelessness, or housing costs and availability as the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on in 2024, with crime and immigration also among the top issues,” Baldassare said. “Fewer than half of adults and likely voters approve of Governor Newsom and the legislature.”

• Strong majorities believe the situation with the US-Mexico border is a major problem and that the US should focus on improving the process by which admission decisions are made. Asked about the situation with migrants at the US-Mexico border, 40 percent of adults (49% of likely voters) say it is a crisis while 30 percent of adults (29% of likely voters) say it is a very serious problem but not a crisis. Across partisan groups, Republicans (76%) are far more likely than independents (38%) and Democrats (29%) to say the border situation is a crisis.

  Sixty-seven percent of California adults (and 62% of likely voters) believe the US focus concerning the US-Mexico border should be on making sure the process for determining who can be admitted or not is more efficient; 32 percent (37% of likely voters) say the focus should be on making sure migrants cannot cross the border in the first place. Eighty-one percent of Democrats, 67 percent of independents, and 35 percent of Republicans say the focus should be on making the determination process more efficient.

  “Seven in ten think the current situation with the US-Mexico border is a ‘crisis’ or a ‘very serious problem,’” Baldassare said. “Two in three Californians say that the US focus should be on making sure the process for determining who can be admitted is more efficient.”

• Most support a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Californians are more divided on military aid to Israel and humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. A solid majority of adults either strongly support (47%) or somewhat support (16%) Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire right now (likely voters: 51% strongly support, 18% somewhat support). This includes at least half of adults across regions (San Francisco Bay Area: 59% strongly support, 13% somewhat support; Los Angeles: 50% strongly support, 16% somewhat support; Central Valley: 41% strongly support, 21% somewhat support; Orange/San Diego: 43% strongly support, 15% somewhat support; Inland Empire: 39% strongly support, 15% somewhat support), partisan groups (Democrats: 61% strongly support, 14% somewhat support; independents: 49% strongly support, 17% somewhat support; Republicans: 27% strongly support, 23% somewhat support), all racial/ethnic, age, and income groups, and all levels of educational attainment.

  Asked about military aid to Israel, 9 percent say the US should increase aid, 40 percent say the US should decrease aid, 25 percent say the US should maintain the same level of aid, and 26 percent are not sure. Twenty-six percent favor increasing US humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, 20 percent favor decreasing it, 23 percent favor keeping it the same, and 30 percent are not sure.

  “About six in ten adults and likely voters would support Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire now, including half or more across all regions and demographic and partisan groups,” Baldassare said. “Californians are more divided on increased aid for Israel and the Palestinians.”

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,628 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.9 percent for the 1,075 likely voters. Interviewing took place from February 6–13, 2024. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.