Key Findings

The 2024 election cycle was officially launched with the Iowa caucuses in January and the South Carolina primary in early February. President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are leading by large margins. Governor Newsom released a state budget proposal that deals with a multibillion-dollar revenue shortfall. The US economy continues to show signs of strong job growth, with mixed signals on inflation. In early February, all California voters were mailed ballots for the March 5 primary.

This is the 26th year of the PPIC Statewide Survey. These are the key findings of the Californians and Their Government survey on state and national issues conducted February 6–13, 2024:

• Fifty-nine percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 1, which authorizes $6.38 billion in bonds to build mental health treatment facilities and provide housing for homeless Californians. Democratic congressmembers Adam Schiff and Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are in the lead in the top-two US Senate primary race. Six in ten Republican likely voters say they will vote for former President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary. President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 23 points in a potential November rematch. Relatively few Californians are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for president and for Congress this year. Still, 84 percent say that voting in 2024 is “very important,” including overwhelming majorities across parties.
• Four in ten Californians name economic conditions and homelessness as the top issues for the governor and legislature to work on in 2024. Fewer than half of adults and likely voters think that things in California are generally going in the right direction and approve of the job performance of Governor Newsom and the state legislature. Still, 56 percent say they think that Governor Newsom and the legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. There is a partisan divide on all of these issues.
• About six in ten Californians believe the state will have bad times financially during the next 12 months, including majorities across the state’s major regions. However, majorities of Californians expect their local economy—and their personal finances—to be about the same or stronger six months from now. Nine percent think it is “extremely” or “very” likely that they, a family member, or someone they know will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions. Strong majorities continue to say they are less comfortable making a major purchase and other household purchases compared to six months ago. Partisans differ in their views of economic conditions.
• Forty percent think the state budget situation is a big problem. After reading a brief description, 51 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters favor the governor’s budget plan. Californians are divided about whether it is a good idea to use state reserves to partially address the current budget situation. Majorities say it is a good idea to use a combination of reductions, delayed spending, and shifts in funding sources. Partisans agree on K–12 public education and health and human services as their top two state spending priorities. Partisans are divided when asked if they would prefer to pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services.
• More than six in ten adults and likely voters—including half or more across regions, parties, and demographic groups—would support Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire now. Californians are more divided when asked if they favor the US increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the same amount of military aid to Israel and increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the same amount of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. Californians are divided and many are not sure about whether the US is providing too much, not enough, or the right amount of support to Ukraine. However, most see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a threat (35% major, 28% minor) to US interests, including majorities across partisan groups.
• Seven in ten think the current situation with the US–Mexico border is a “crisis” or a “very serious problem”—while partisans are divided on whether it is a “crisis.” Three in four Californians say that national security and the well-being of migrants are reasons that they consider this a crisis or a very serious problem. When it comes to migrants seeking shelter at the US–Mexico border, 67 percent say that the US should focus on making sure the process is more efficient. Six in ten Californians say that immigrants are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills.
• Six in ten Californians believe the nation will have bad times financially in the next 12 months, and three in four think the nation is generally going in the wrong direction. Forty-two percent of adults and 49 percent of likely voters approve of President Biden; 19 percent of adults and 12 percent of likely voters approve of the US Congress. One in four think that President Biden and the US Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. About four in ten adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way US democracy is working. Six in ten say that the way democracy is working in the US today has gotten a little (27%) or a lot (33%) worse than it was five years ago.

California’s March 5 primary is part of a national “Super Tuesday” that sets the stage for the November 5 presidential election. The California ballot includes the presidential primary, top-two US Senate primary, federal and state legislative races, and Proposition 1. Majorities of Californians are either somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic about voting this year. Fewer than four in ten say they are “extremely” (23%) or “very” (14%) enthusiastic about voting for president. Fewer than three in ten are “extremely” (15%) or “very” (13%) enthusiastic about voting for Congress. Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting for president, while partisans hold similar views about voting for US representatives; independents are less enthusiastic than the partisans about voting for president or a House representative. Yet, 84 percent say that voting in 2024 is “very important” (85% Democrats, 86% Republicans, 78% independents).

Here are the latest findings on the key races and Proposition 1 on the March 2024 ballot:

Senate primary. Democratic congressmembers Adam Schiff (24%) and Katie Porter (19%) and Republican Steve Garvey (18%) lead in the primary race; the top two vote-getters will be on the November ballot. Support is lower for Democratic congressmember Barbara Lee (10%) and all other candidates, while 6 percent are undecided. Schiff and Porter were the frontrunners in the July, September, November, and December PPIC Statewide Surveys. Support for Garvey has increased since the December Survey (10% to 18% today), while support is similar for Schiff (21% to 24%), Porter (16% to 19% today) and Lee (8% to 10% today). Today, 38 percent of Democrats would vote for Schiff and 29 percent would vote for Porter. Forty-nine percent of Republicans would vote for Garvey, while independents are divided (19% Schiff, 19% Porter, 15% Garvey). Schiff has the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (32%) and Los Angeles (26%). Porter’s support is highest in Orange/San Diego (29%). Garvey has more support in Orange/San Diego (25%), the Inland Empire (24%), and the Central Valley (21%) than elsewhere. Support varies across demographic groups. Among those under the age of 45, Porter (23%) leads Schiff (11%) and Garvey (12%). For adults 45 and older, Schiff (31%) leads Garvey (22%) and Porter (18%). Sixty-two percent of likely voters and majorities across regions and demographic groups are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the US Senate primary, although partisans are divided (74% Democrats, 47% Republicans, 55% independents).

Republican presidential primary. A solid majority of Republican likely voters say they would vote for former president Donald Trump (64%) in the presidential primary. Trump’s support has increased since last year (50% June, 50% July, 48% September, 53% November, 56% December), in the wake of candidates leaving the race. Today, support for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is at 17 percent, while other candidates named on the ballot are at 3 percent or lower. Just 1 percent say they don’t know how they will vote; 2 percent say they will vote for someone else, and 4 percent would not vote in the Republican primary. Trump’s support is at 75 percent among conservatives and is similar among men (65%) and women (62%). Support for Trump is at 48 percent among college graduates and is at 67 percent among those 45 and older. When asked how they would vote when the choice is between the two remaining Republican presidential candidates, 69 percent say they would vote for Trump and 29 percent would vote for Haley, while 2 percent would not vote in the Republican primary.

Presidential election. When asked about the possible (and increasingly likely) November rematch between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, California likely voters would choose Biden by a wide margin (55% to 32%). Biden led by a large margin last June (58% Biden, 25% Trump), July (56% Biden, 31% Trump), September (57% Biden, 26% Trump), November (60% Biden, 29% Trump), and December (54% Biden, 30% Trump). These PPIC Statewide Survey findings are aligned with 2020 California election results (63.5% Biden, 34.3% Trump). Today, 82 percent of Democrats would vote for Biden, 78 percent of Republicans support Trump, and independents would vote for Biden by a wide margin (47% Biden, 29% Trump). About half or more of likely voters across age, gender, and racial/ethnic groups say they would vote for Biden. Support for Biden varies across regions (68% San Francisco Bay Area, 57% Los Angeles, 44% Central Valley, 56% Orange/San Diego, 43% Inland Empire). Biden has stronger support among college graduates (65% Biden, 21% Trump) than with those with some college education (47% Biden, 40% Trump) and high school or less education (49% Biden, 37% Trump). Ten percent say they would vote for “someone else” for president; shares with this view are similar among partisans (5% Democrats, 8% Republicans, 19% independents), while shares are similar across age, gender, and education groups and state regions.

House district races. Most of California’s 52 US House seats are held by Democrats. The outcomes in several competitive districts this November will help determine party control of a closely divided Congress in 2025–2026. If the 2024 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 61 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 36 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. The margin was similar in the December PPIC Statewide Survey (62% Democrat, 37% Republican). Today, 91 percent of Republicans and 92 percent of Democrats would vote for their party’s House candidate, while independents favor Democratic candidates by a wide margin (57% Democrat, 37% Republican). Majorities across demographic groups would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their local House district race. Support for Democratic House candidates varies by region (74% San Francisco Bay Area, 64% Los Angeles, 58% Orange/San Diego, 50% Central Valley, 47% Inland Empire). In the 10 competitive districts as defined by the Cook report, 54 percent say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate and 43 percent say they would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate.

Proposition 1. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, and 38 percent would vote no after reading the ballot title and label of Proposition 1, a legislative initiative which includes $6.38 billion in bonds to build mental health treatment facilities for those with mental health and substance abuse challenges and provide housing for the homeless. Majorities across demographic groups and regions say they would vote yes, while partisans are divided (76% Democrats, 32% Republicans, 56% independents). About half (51%) say it is a “good time” (48% bad time) to issue $6.38 billion in bonds to fund housing for homeless individuals and veterans with mental health or substance abuse disorders. Findings were similar in December (51% good time, 46% bad time). Today, shares viewing this as a “good time” vary by party (66% Democrats, 25% Republicans, 51% independents) and across income levels (66% less than $40,000; 54% $40,000 to $79,999; 46% $80,000 or more). When asked about the Mental Health Services Act—Proposition 63 passed by voters in 2004 to fund county mental health services with revenue from a 1 percent tax of income above $1 million—63 percent say that it has been mostly a “good thing” (33% bad thing). Seventy-five percent say the outcome of the Proposition 1 vote is important to them (29% very, 46% somewhat). Those who would vote yes on Proposition 1 are more likely to say the outcome is important to them.

When asked about the most important issue for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2024, Californians are most likely to name jobs, the economy, and inflation (20%) or homelessness (18%). Fewer mention housing costs and availability (14%), crime, gangs, and drugs (11%), or immigration (10%). Findings among likely voters are similar. About one in four Democrats (26%) name homelessness, while one in four Republicans (24%) mention immigration as the top issue to work on in 2024; independents are equally as likely to name jobs, the economy, and inflation (19%) as housing costs and availability (18%).

Majorities of California adults (57%) and likely voters (55%) continue to think that things in the state are headed in the wrong direction. Findings have been similar in recent months, while last February Californians were evenly divided (49% right direction, 49% wrong direction). Overwhelming shares of Republicans (88%) and two in three independents (68%) think things are going in the wrong direction, compared to just one in three Democrats (33%). Majorities across regions and demographic groups hold this pessimistic view—with the exception of African Americans (50% right direction, 47% wrong direction).

Fewer than half of adults (47%) and likely voters (48%) approve of Governor Newsom’s job performance (50% disapprove among both adults and likely voters). This marks the first time since November 2019—when 18 percent were unsure—that fewer than 50 percent of adults approve of the governor. An overwhelming share of Democrats (70%) approve, while six in ten independents (60%) and over eight in ten Republicans (84%) disapprove. Approval varies across regions, with a majority of residents in Los Angeles (53%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) approving, while majorities in other regions disapprove. Two in three African Americans (67%) and half of Latinos (51%) approve, while Asian Americans are evenly divided (48% approve, 48% disapprove) and a majority of whites (56%) disapprove.

Forty-three percent of Californians approve of the state legislature, while 54 percent disapprove. Findings among likely voters are similar. Approval was higher among Californians last February (49% approve, 48% disapprove). Approval of the California Legislature falls short of 50 percent across parties, regions, and demographic groups except among Democrats (64%) and African Americans (57%).

Despite half or more disapproving of Governor Newsom and of the state legislature, 56 percent of Californians think that the governor and state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. This level of optimism has held steady in recent years, including last year when 61 percent held this view. It is noteworthy that optimism is down 11 points from January 2019, when 67 percent were optimistic about the prospects of Governor Newsom and the legislature accomplishing a lot. Today, about three in four Democrats (74%) think the governor and legislature will be able to accomplish a lot, compared to 47 percent of independents and 38 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and demographic groups are optimistic.

Roughly six in ten Californians expect bad economic times in the next year. This perception was similar in December (65%) and last February (66%), and a majority of Californians have been pessimistic since November 2021 (47% good times, 52% bad times). Partisans are divided on the economic outlook for the state, with eight in ten Republicans (80%) and two in three independents (68%) pessimistic, compared to fewer than half of Democrats (45%). Majorities across regions and demographic groups expect bad times. Pessimism is highest in the Inland Empire (71%) and Central Valley (69%) and lowest in the San Francisco Bay Area (53%). Six in ten or more whites (63%), Asian Americans (62%), and Latinos (62%) are pessimistic, while African Americans are divided (48% good times, 48% bad times).

When asked about the economy in their local area, a plurality of Californians (46%) expect it to be about the same six months from now. Nearly four in ten expect their local economy to be weaker (15% much weaker, 23% somewhat weaker) and 15 percent expect it to be stronger (2% much stronger, 13% somewhat stronger). Views were nearly identical in December and September—the first two times we asked this question. Today, residents in the Inland Empire and Central Valley are more pessimistic than Californians elsewhere. Differences across demographic groups are minimal, although men (19%) are somewhat more likely than women (12%) to be optimistic. Across parties, Republicans (63%) are the most likely to be pessimistic about the outlook for the economy in their local area, while fewer independents (40%) and Democrats (26%) hold this view.

Californians have slightly more positive views of their personal finances over the next six months. Half (52%) expect their financial situation to be about the same, while about one in five expect it to be stronger (4% much stronger, 17% somewhat stronger) and about one in four expect it to be weaker (17% somewhat weaker, 10% much weaker). Perceptions were nearly identical in December and September. Today, African Americans (15% much stronger, 25% somewhat stronger) are much more likely than Latinos (6% much stronger, 19% somewhat stronger), whites (1% much stronger, 17% somewhat stronger), and Asian Americans (3% much stronger, 11% somewhat stronger) to expect a stronger financial situation in six months. Men (5% much stronger, 21% somewhat stronger) are more likely than women (3% much stronger, 14% somewhat stronger) to be optimistic about their finances, and the share expecting their financial situation to be about the same rises with increasing age, education, and income.

When asked how they feel about making purchases today compared to six months ago, most Californians say they are less comfortable. About three in four Californians (74%) say they are less comfortable making a major purchase, such as a home or car, while roughly two in three (64%) say they are less comfortable about making other household purchases. Views were nearly identical in December: 74 percent were less comfortable making major purchases while 66 percent were less comfortable about other household purchases.

While solid majorities across parties say they are less comfortable about making a major purchase, Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to hold this view. Two in three or more across regions are less comfortable, with those in the Inland Empire the most likely—and those in Orange/San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area the least likely—to hold this view. Six in ten or more across demographic groups report being less comfortable; shares with this view decline with increasing age, education, and income. Latinos are more likely than African Americans, Asian Americans, and whites to report feeling less comfortable about making major purchases.

When it comes to making other household purchases, similar patterns emerge. Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say they are less comfortable. Inland Empire residents are the most likely to say they are less comfortable, while those in Orange/San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area are the least likely. Latinos and African Americans are more likely than whites and Asian Americans to hold this view and this perception increases with increasing education and income.

When asked about job loss, 21 percent of Californians say that in the last six months they, someone in their family, or someone else they know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions. Experiencing a job loss is most likely for Californians in the San Francisco Bay Area (27%) and the Central Valley (24%) along with Latinos (26%) and those with incomes less than $40,000 (28%).

Looking ahead at the next six months, 9 percent think it is “extremely” or “very” likely that they, a family member, or someone they know will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions, and nearly three in ten say it is somewhat likely. Six in ten Californians say job loss in the next six months is “not very” likely (44%) or “not at all” likely (18%).

In January, Governor Newsom released a $291.5 billion spending plan and announced an estimated $37.9 billion state budget shortfall. This shortfall has increased since last January, when it was estimated to be $22.5 billion. Most California adults and likely voters say the state budget situation is at least somewhat of a problem; four in ten adults and just under half of likely voters (47%) say it is a big problem (not a problem: 10% adults, 8% likely voters). The share of adults saying the budget situation is a big problem was similar in June 2023 (36%); however, likely voters are now more likely to hold this view (39% June 2023). Today, majorities of partisans say it is at least somewhat of a problem, but Republicans are much more likely (69%) than independents (47%) and Democrats (26%) to say it is a big problem.

Three in ten or more among racial/ethnic groups say the budget situation is a big problem, with shares highest among whites (45%) and lowest among African Americans (31%; 36% Latinos, 38% Asian Americans). Four in ten or more adults with at least some college education hold this view, compared to fewer adults with a high school diploma only (46% some college). The share saying the budget is a big problem increases with rising income and age. Somewhat similar shares across the state’s major regions hold this view. Eighty-eight percent of adults in competitive congressional districts say the budget situation is at least somewhat of a problem (43% big problem, 45% somewhat of a problem).

After reading a short summary of Governor Newsom’s budget proposal, about half of adults (51%) and likely voters (48%) are in favor. The proposal includes $5.1 billion in budget delays, $2.1 billion in deferrals, and $3.4 billion in fund shifts. Despite the projected shortfall, the plan currently includes no new taxes. A solid majority of Democrats are in favor, while an overwhelming majority of Republicans and about half of independents oppose the budget plan. Support is highest among Los Angeles residents (61%) and lowest in Orange/San Diego (42%; 52% Inland Empire, 51% San Francisco Bay Area, 48% Central Valley). About half or more across demographic groups are in favor, except for white adults (42%) and adults with some college education (46%).

The governor’s budget plan proposes the use of $13.1 billion from the state’s reserves, mostly from the Budget Stabilization Account (or Rainy Day Fund), to partially address the current budget shortfall. Californians are divided, with a plurality of adults and likely voters (46% each) saying this is a good idea, and about half of adults (48%) and likely voters (51%) saying this is a bad idea. Partisan views vary, with a majority of Democrats (58%) saying this is a good idea, compared to fewer Republicans (27%) and independents (42%). Four in ten or more across demographic groups see using some state reserves as a good idea, with men more likely than women and African Americans most likely among racial/ethnic groups to say this. Across regions, residents in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area are most likely to say it is a good idea, compared to fewer in other regions. Adults in competitive congressional districts are slightly more likely to call this a bad idea (46% good idea, 48% bad idea).

The governor’s budget proposal also calls for a combination of cuts, delayed spending, and shifts in funding sources to help bridge the gap between spending and revenues. Currently, the plan calls for $8.5 billion in spending cuts, including $2.9 billion in various climate reductions and $1.2 billion in various housing program reductions. A majority of adults (54%) and likely voters (57%) say these spending cuts are a good idea, while about four in ten say they are a bad idea (42% adults, 40% likely voters). A majority of Republicans (67%) and Democrats (52%) say the cuts are a good idea, while independents are divided (47% good idea, 49% bad idea). Over four in ten across demographic groups see these spending cuts as a good idea; men are much more likely than women to hold this view. Asian Americans, Latinos, and whites are more likely than African Americans to say the cuts are a good idea, and the share holding this view increases with rising education, income, and age. Majorities across regions see spending cuts as a good idea, with the exception of 49 percent of Los Angeles residents. A majority of adults in competitive congressional districts say the cuts are a good idea (55% good idea, 39% bad idea).

How would Californians prefer to deal with the state’s projected $38.9 billion gap between spending and revenues? About four in ten or more (41% adults, 45% likely voters) say they would prefer to deal with it mostly through spending cuts, while another four in ten would prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases (39% adults, 40% likely voters). Fewer than one in ten say they would prefer dealing with it mostly through tax increases or say it is okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit.

When asked to name an area of state government spending that should have the highest priority, 45 percent of adults named health and human services, 38 percent named K–12 public education; fewer named higher education (8%) or prisons and corrections (7%). Priorities were similar among Californians in competitive congressional districts. When it comes to taxes and services, Californians are divided: about half say they would rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services (48% adults, 48% likely voters), and half say they would rather pay lower taxes and have fewer services (49% adults, 51% likely voters). Partisans differ acutely when it comes to their preferences for taxes and services. A slim majority of Californians in competitive districts say they would prefer lower taxes and fewer services.

Californians are divided over the amount of support the US is providing to Ukraine in its war with Russia: a quarter of adults and likely voters say there is too much support, while about a quarter say there is about the right amount of support (25% adults, 28% likely voters), and somewhat similar shares say there is not enough support (22% adults, 30% likely voters). Nearly three in ten adults (28%) and 17 percent of likely voters say they are unsure. Notably, the share saying the US is providing the right amount of support has declined since December 2023 (36% adults, 41% likely voters). Today, partisan views vary, with Republicans most likely to say there is too much support, and Democrats most likely to say there is not enough support, while independents are divided. Views vary across demographic and regional groups. Adults in competitive congressional districts are divided (25% too much, 22% not enough, 30% about the right amount). Adults nationwide are also divided, with about a third saying there is too much support, another third saying there is about the right amount, and three in ten saying there is not enough—according to a survey conducted in February by NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist Poll.

A solid majority of California adults and likely voters say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to US interests; 35 percent of adults and 43 percent of likely voters say it is a major threat. One in ten adults (11%) and likely voters (10%) say it is not a threat, and a quarter of adults and 15 percent of likely voters are unsure. Today, solid majorities of partisans say the invasion is at least a minor threat to US interests; however, Democrats are most likely to say it is a major threat. Across racial/ethnic groups, nearly half of Asian Americans (47%) say this, compared to fewer whites (37%) and African Americans (35%), and far fewer Latinos (26%). The share saying the invasion is a major threat increases with rising age, education, and income. Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents (41%) are the most likely to hold this view, while Central Valley residents (26%) are the least likely. A strong majority of adults in competitive congressional districts say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is at least a minor threat to US interests (39% major, 29% minor). A strong majority of adults nationwide said it was a major (33%) or minor threat (34%), according to a December 2023 Pew Research Center poll.

Asked about the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, four in ten adults and likely voters favor the US decreasing military aid to Israel. A quarter of adults (25%) and 31 percent of likely voters favor maintaining the same amount of military aid, while fewer favor increasing military aid (9% adults, 12% likely voters; not sure: 25% adults, 17% likely voters). Democrats and independents are most likely to favor decreasing military aid, while Republicans are most likely to favor maintaining current levels of aid. In addition, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats and independents to favor increasing military aid. About three in ten or more across demographic and regional groups favor decreasing military aid; this share declines as age rises and increases as education rises. Thirty-six percent of adults in competitive congressional districts favor decreasing military aid (28% maintaining same amount, 9% increasing aid). Californians are more likely than adults nationwide to hold this view, according to a February Economist/YouGov poll (19% increase aid, 31% decrease aid, 30% maintain same amount of aid).

When it comes to the US providing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, 26 percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters favor increasing humanitarian aid; 23 percent of adults and 27 percent of likely voters favor maintaining the same amount of aid, and about two in ten adults (20%) and likely voters (23%) favor decreasing humanitarian aid. Three in ten adults and 19 percent of likely voters are unsure. Partisans are divided, with Democrats most likely to favor increasing humanitarian aid, Republicans most likely to favor decreasing aid, and independents divided. Opinions vary across racial/ethnic groups, with fewer than three in ten Asian Americans (27%), Latinos (27%), and whites (25%) in favor of increasing humanitarian aid, while nearly half of African Americans say they are not sure (48%). The share in favor of increasing aid declines with rising age and increases as education levels rise. Across regions, about three in ten or more adults in the San Francisco Bay Area (34%), Orange/San Diego (29%), and Los Angeles (28%) favor increasing Palestinian aid, compared to fewer in the Inland Empire (21%) and Central Valley (18%). Among adults in competitive districts, about a quarter (24%) favor maintaining the current amount, and about two in ten favor decreasing (20%) or increasing aid (21%). Adults nationwide are also divided on this issue, with similar shares saying they favor increasing (26%), decreasing (24%), or maintaining the same amount of humanitarian aid (26%) to the Palestinians, according to the February Economist/YouGov poll.

About six in ten California adults and likely voters say they would support Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire now; 47 percent of adults and 51 percent of likely voters strongly support a ceasefire. Majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups strongly or somewhat support a ceasefire, with the exception of half of Republicans (27% strongly, 23% somewhat). The share that strongly supports this reaches a majority among Democrats (61%), San Francisco Bay Area residents (59%), Latinos (52%), and college graduates (53%). About six in ten adults in competitive congressional districts strongly (44%) or somewhat (17%) support a ceasefire.

In the last few years, there has been a surge in migrants from different countries trying to cross the US–Mexico border. December 2023 saw the largest surge in more than two decades of migrant encounters at the border (close to 250,000). This issue has also been central to negotiations in Congress over the last few months. Four in ten Californians say the border situation has reached a crisis level, yet a solid majority still think immigrants are a benefit to the state because of their hard work and job skills. Two-thirds of Californians think the border policy focus should be on making sure the process for who can or cannot be admitted more efficient, while about a third say the focus should be on blocking migrants crossing the border. According to a January YouGov/CBS News national poll, a majority of Americans (57%) say the policy focus should be on improving efficiency.

There is a large partisan divide on this issue. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (81%) and two in three independents (67%) say the focus should be on making the process more efficient, while a strong majority of Republicans say the focus should be blocking migrants from crossing (65%). Nearly three in four Latinos say the focus should be on making the process more efficient, a share that is higher than other racial and ethnic groups. A solid majority across demographic groups say the focus should be on making the process more efficient, as do majorities across regions of the state.

An overwhelming majority of Californians say the situation at the border is at least a very serious problem: 40 percent say the situation is a crisis and 30 percent say it is a very serious problem but not a crisis. About one in five say the situation is a somewhat serious problem (19%), while one in ten say it is not much of a problem (10%). Today, there is a huge partisan divide on views of the severity of the situation. About three quarters of Republicans say the situation is a crisis, while 38 percent of independents and 29 percent of Democrats say the same. However, majorities of Democrats and independents do say it is at least a very serious problem. Whites are much more likely to say the situation is a crisis compared to other racial and ethnic groups. A majority of Californians 55 and over (53%) say the situation is a crisis, a share much higher than those 35–54 (35%) and 18–34 (29%). According to the same YouGov/CBS News poll, the views of all Americans are similar to those of Californians.

Those who say the situation is a crisis or a very serious problem were asked additional questions about their reasons for concern: concerns about national security, the lives and well-being of migrants, and changes to US culture and people. About three quarters of this subgroup say concerns about national security (76%) and the lives and well-being of the migrants (75%) are a reason why they view the situation as a crisis or a very serious problem. Less than half (46%) attributed their view to concerns about changes to the US culture and people.

Virtually all Republicans (97%) say concerns about national security are a reason they think the border situation is a crisis or very serious problem, compared to smaller majorities of independents (72%) and Democrats (64%). Conversely, nine in ten Democrats (89%) say they are concerned about the lives of migrants, compared to smaller majorities of independents (73%) and Republicans (58%). When it comes to changes to US culture, a majority of Republicans say this is a reason they see the border situation as a crisis or a very serious problem, compared to four in ten independents and about a third of Democrats.

Across regions, residents in the Inland Empire (85%) are the most likely to say concerns about national security are reasons for viewing the situation as a crisis or a very serious problem, while those in the San Francisco Bay Area (69%) are the least likely. Similar shares across regions say concerns about the well-being of migrants are a reason. Residents in the Inland Empire (56%) are most likely to say concern about changes to US culture is a reason, while residents in Los Angeles (40%) are the least likely to say this.

Similar shares across demographic groups say concern about national security is a reason why the border situation is at least a very serious problem. Concern about the lives and well-being of migrants is higher among Latinos (82%) than among other racial/ethnic groups; a somewhat higher share of younger adults than other age groups say this is a reason. Half or more of African Americans, adults with a high school education, and adults ages 55 and older say changes to US culture is a reason for their view of the border situation.

Over the past year, the federal government has been in turmoil, with the expulsion of the Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, an ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Biden by House Republicans, and months of negotiations on foreign aid and border policy. Relatively few laws have been passed, putting this Congress on course to be the least productive in decades. Entering a very important election year, both Biden and Congress’s approval ratings are at record lows. President Biden’s approval is at a low of 42 percent among all Californians (49% of likely voters); congressional approval is the lowest it has been in the past 10 years.

Three in four Californians say the United States is going in the wrong direction. Californians felt this strong sentiment right before the 2020 election and during the Great Recession in 2008, and shares with this view have been somewhat similar since October 2022. Today, about nine in ten Republicans feel the US is going in the wrong direction, as do 85 percent of independents; Democrats are much less likely to hold this view (63%). Among racial and ethnic groups, whites (78%) are somewhat more likely than Latinos (71%) and African Americans (65%) to say the US is going in the wrong direction (74% Asian Americans). Young adults ages 18 to 34 are slightly more likely than older groups to hold this view (80%, 18 to 34; 73%, 35 and older).

Relatedly, a solid majority (63%) expect bad times financially in the US during the next year. Democrats are divided (48% each good and bad time), while Republicans and independents are much more pessimistic. Majorities across most demographic groups and regions hold this pessimistic view, with the exception of African Americans (48% bad times).

About four in ten Californians and half of likely voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president (disapprove: 56% adults, 50% likely voters). There are some differences across parties, regions, and demographic groups. About two in three Democrats approve of Biden, compared to significantly fewer independents (37%) and Republicans (14%). Across regions, a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area approve of Biden, compared to about four in ten or fewer elsewhere. His approval rating is similar among all Americans, according to a recent Gallup poll (41%).

Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans (62%) are most likely to approve of Biden, while Latinos are least likely to approve (37%). A slim majority of Asian Americans (52%) approve, as do about four in ten white Californians. Approval of Biden increases with age, with half of adults 55 and older approving, compared to 30 percent of younger adults (age 18 to 34). A majority of college graduates (55%) approve of Biden’s performance, compared to 37 percent with some college and 35 percent with only a high school education.

About one in ten Californians say they have a great deal of confidence in President Biden to make the right decisions for the country’s future, while about a third say they have none at all.

Approval of Congress is near a record low among Californians, at 19 percent; approval is similarly low among all Americans (15%), according to a January 2024 Gallup poll. There is little variation across parties, regions, and most demographic groups in California. Independents are the least likely to approve of Congress (11%), followed by Republicans (16%) and Democrats (20%). Latinos and African Americans (26% each) are twice as likely as whites (13%) to approve, while 21 percent of Asian Americans approve.

When Californians were asked if President Biden and the US Congress will be able to work together to accomplish a lot in the next year, a quarter express confidence (72% say they will not be able to work together). Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans and independents to think the president and Congress will be able to work together. Across regions of the state, Inland Empire residents are the most likely to hold this view, while those in Orange/San Diego are the least likely.

Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans are the most optimistic, with four in ten saying President Biden and Congress will be able to accomplish a lot in the next year, while whites are least likely to be optimistic (17%). About a third of adults with only a high school education are optimistic, compared to a fifth of college graduates and those with some college education. Californians with incomes less than $80,000 are more likely than those with incomes over $80,000 to think the president and Congress will be able to work together (30% and 20% respectively).

Six in ten Californians say they are not satisfied with how democracy is working in the US, with 38 percent saying they are not too satisfied and 22 percent saying they are not at all satisfied. About a third say they are somewhat satisfied and 4 percent say they are very satisfied. Satisfaction varies most among partisan groups. Close to seven in ten Republicans say they are not too (35%) or not at all satisfied (34%) with how democracy is working; dissatisfaction levels are similar among independents (44% not too, 24% not at all). Democrats express less dissatisfaction with democracy in the US: about half say they are not too (36%) or not at all satisfied (16%). Across regions and across gender, age, and income groups, close to six in ten or more express dissatisfaction. There are some differences across racial/ethnic groups: about a quarter of whites say they are not at all satisfied, while African Americans are most likely to express satisfaction (45%).

In line with these sentiments about democracy, six in ten Californians say that the way that democracy is working in the US has gotten worse in the past five years. Majorities hold this view across parties, regions, and most demographic groups. A strong majority of whites (72%) say democracy has gotten worse in the past five years, compared to a smaller majority of Asian Americans (55%) and fewer than half of Latinos and African Americans (48% each).