Nearly half of registered voters are Democrats; independent registration has declined somewhat.

• The share of registered voters who are Democrats (45.3%) has decreased slightly since 2021 (46.2%), the year before the last gubernatorial election. The share who are Republicans (25.2%) has seen a small uptick (24.1% in 2021).
• About two in ten voters (22.3%) are independents (also known as “decline to state” or “no party preference” voters); this share has declined somewhat since 2021 (23.7%). Meanwhile, the share registering with a minor political party has increased from 6.0% in 2021 to 7.2% today.
• Twenty years ago, Republicans made up a much higher share of the electorate: in February 2005, about one in three voters (34.5%) were registered as Republicans. The share of independents (17.9%) was lower than it is today, and the share of Democrats (43%) was slightly below the current level.

A majority of independent likely voters are ideologically moderate, compared to fewer Democrats and Republicans.

• In our surveys over the past year, independent likely voters have been most likely to lean toward the Democratic Party (39%). About a quarter lean Republican (26%) and about a third say they do not lean toward either party (34%).
• Independent likely voters are far more likely to be moderate (51%) than liberal (29%) or conservative (21%). In contrast, 22% of Republican likely voters say they are moderate (76% conservative, 2% liberal) and 31% of Democratic likely voters describe themselves as moderate (64% liberal, 5% conservative).

Likely voters are disproportionately white; Democratic likely voters are relatively diverse.

• Whites make up only 36% of California’s adult population but comprise 50% of likely voters. In contrast, Latinos make up 38% of the state’s adult population but only 29% of likely voters. Asian Americans make up 16% of adults and 12% of likely voters, while 5% of adults and 4% of likely voters are African American. Those who identify as multiracial or “other race” make up 5% of the adult population and 4% of likely voters.
• Four in ten (41%) Democratic likely voters are white; 35% are Latino, 12% are Asian American, and 6% are African American.
• A solid majority (64%) of Republican likely voters are white; relatively few are Latino (23%) or Asian American (9%).
• Among independents, 50% are white, 23% are Latino, 17% are Asian American, and 4% are African American.

Most Republican likely voters are older adults; a majority of Democrats are women; and over half of independents are college graduates.

• About one in four independents (23%) and Democrats (24%) are young adults (age 18 to 34), compared to somewhat fewer Republicans (16%). Meanwhile Republicans (56%) are much more likely than Democrats (47%) or independents (44%) to be age 55 and older.
• Democratic likely voters are somewhat more likely to be women (57%) than men (43%), while independents (54% men, 46% women) and Republicans (54% men, 46% women) are somewhat more likely to be men than women.
• Democrats (45%) and independents (54%) are more likely than Republicans (35%) to be college graduates; 53% of members of minor parties are college graduates. About one quarter of Republicans (22%) have no college education.
• About one in ten or fewer Democrats (10%), Republicans (5%), and independents (10%) have household incomes under $40,000. Majorities across partisan groups have annual incomes of $100,000 or more (64% Democrats, 67% independents, 71% Republicans, 61% minor parties).
• The regional distribution of likely voters mirrors that of the state’s overall adult population. Most Democrats live in Los Angeles County (28%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (24%), while most Republicans live in the Central Valley (27%), Orange and San Diego Counties (21%), or Los Angeles County (18%). Independents are most likely to live in Los Angeles County (28%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (21%).