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Report

Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime?

By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar

Among Californians born in 1993 and later, criminal offending has fallen 20 to 25 percent compared to previous generations. This shift in longstanding trends is a driving factor behind the overall decline in crime over the last decades and has several broader implications for the criminal justice system.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief: Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Arrests in California

By Deepak Premkumar, Thomas Sloan, Magnus Lofstrom, Joseph Hayes

California’s criminal justice system was affected by shelter-in-place orders and other public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with law enforcement directives intended to minimize exposure to the virus. We found that pandemic arrest trends mirror mobility patterns, particularly early on. But other factors also played a role.

Report

Alternatives to Incarceration in California

By Ryken Grattet, Brandon Martin

Three-plus years after implementing a major realignment of its public safety systems, California continues to face pressure to reduce both its prison and jail populations. California relied on some alternatives to custody-based punishment before realignment but it has been expanding its use of others. Current research on the effects of incarceration and its alternatives offers a general endorsement of the idea that increasing reliance on community-based alternatives is not likely to result in large increases in crime and recidivism. The evidence suggests that the effectiveness of both incarceration and community-based supervision depends on a number of factors, including the rate of incarceration in a given community, the offender characteristics, and the nature of the response to violations during and after supervision. Finally, intensive data collection on county implementation efforts can help the state identify the community-based strategies that produce the best outcomes.

Report

Realignment and Recidivism in California

By Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen

California has experienced significant changes in its criminal justice landscape since the 2011 implementation of public safety realignment—which shifted the management of lower-level offenders from the state prison and parole system to county jail and probation systems. The prison population has dropped dramatically, and though jail populations rose, overall incarceration levels have declined.

Fact Sheet

California’s Prison Population

By Joseph Hayes, Justin Goss, Heather Harris, Alexandria Gumbs

Many of California’s inmates live in overcrowded conditions, despite successful efforts to stabilize the prison population systemwide. This fact sheet provides a snapshot of the state’s prisons, highlighting the most current information on racial disparities, health costs, and other key issues.

Report

New Insights into California Arrests: Trends, Disparities, and County Differences

By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Justin Goss, Joseph Hayes

Over the past few decades, arrests have declined dramatically—especially for misdemeanors. Though racial disparities have narrowed, the gap between African Americans and whites remains substantial. In 2016, the arrest rate for African Americans was three times the white arrest rate.

Report

California’s County Jails in the Era of Reform

By Sonya Tafoya, Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen

California’s county jails have been profoundly affected by several reforms over the last decade. Most importantly, in 2011, public safety realignment shifted responsibility for large numbers of non-serious, non-violent, and non-sexual offenders from state prisons to county correctional systems. This lowered the state prison population—allowing prisons to prioritize beds for more serious offenders—but increased county jail populations. Three years later, Proposition 47 downgraded a range of drug and property offenses from potential felonies to misdemeanors. The reduced population pressure has allowed jails to prioritize beds for more serious drug and property offenders who are no longer eligible for prison.

Despite the growing importance of jails, little is known about the basic characteristics of jail populations. In this report, we analyze state and local data on individuals moving through county correctional systems. Using data from 11 counties, we find that:

  • Reforms altered the offender composition of the jail population, especially among those held on drug and property crimes. After three years under realignment, the number of drug and property offenders in jails increased by 55 percent and 40 percent, respectively. One year after the passage of Proposition 47, the number of drug and property offenders fell by 35 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
  • Length of stay for felony drug and property offenders increased after realignment. For example, median time served for felony drug offenders released in October 2011 was 45 days, compared to 98 days for those released in October 2015. However, length of stay for people who served time for misdemeanors and felony crimes against persons has remained stable.
  • Releases due to overcapacity rose under realignment and dropped after Proposition 47, when jail population pressure eased.
  • The demographic composition of jails has largely remained stable. But the age distribution does show modest signs of change: the share of those ages 18–21 in jail has decreased slightly, as the share of those in their 30s has increased.

As jail populations shift toward more serious drug and property offenders, counties and the state will need to consider how jail security and rehabilitative programs might be made more effective. While researchers and policymakers continue to examine the longer-term effects of realignment and Proposition 47, it is also important to keep in mind that the recent reprioritization of jail beds may have implications for crime and recidivism.

Report

Pretrial Risk Assessment in California

By Heather Harris, Justin Goss, Alexandria Gumbs

Pretrial risk assessment can help counties decide whether arrestees should stay in the community or be detained while their cases are pending. But counties may face challenges in ensuring their risk assessment systems promote accuracy and equity.

Report

Key Factors in Arrest Trends and Differences in California’s Counties

By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Justin Goss, Joseph Hayes

Arrests in California have declined in the last few decades—driven by lower crime rates and criminal justice reforms. While rural, poorer counties tend to have higher overall arrest rates, affluent counties often see larger racial disparities in arrests.

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