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Statewide Survey

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government

By Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes

Key findings from the current survey: Gavin Newsom remains ahead of John Cox in the governor’s race; Dianne Feinstein continues to lead Kevin de León in the race for US Senate. Two closely watched ballot initiatives—Prop 6, which would repeal recent gas tax increases, and Prop 10, which would expand local rent control authority—are trailing. A majority of likely voters favor the Democratic candidate in their US House district—and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be enthusiastic about voting.

Report

Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California

By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom

When California’s historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment’s first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment’s first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California’s reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California’s property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states—so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies—and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states.

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