Report Anticipating Changes in Regional Demand for Nursing Homes By Laurel Beck, Landon Gibson Nov 2, 2016 California’s nursing homes provide a major source of personal and medical care for the state’s most vulnerable residents—the elderly and the disabled. By 2030 the state’s 65-and-over population will grow by 87 percent. The number of people requiring skilled nursing care could increase by 32,000, far outstripping current capacities. We find that there will be significant disparities in regional growth rates across racial/ethnic groups and in regions’ abilities to absorb higher numbers of patients. Specifically: The Bay Area and the Inland Empire have the largest discrepancies between existing nursing home capacity and projected demand in 2030; Los Angeles and Northern California (excluding the Bay Area) have the smallest. Regional growth rates in the 65-and-over population vary widely within racial/ethnic groups. For example, rates among Latinos range from 159 percent on the state’s Southern Border (Imperial and San Diego Counties) to 193 percent in the Inland Empire; among Asians they range from 93 percent in the Central Coast to 212 percent in Northern California (excluding the Bay Area). In order to meet the growing and changing demands for senior care at the statewide and regional levels, policymakers will need to address ways to increase nursing home capacity. These solutions must also include recruiting and training health workers who can provide effective, culturally competent care, whether in skilled nursing facilities or home- and community-based settings.
event California’s Historic Corrections Reforms Sep 28, 2016 About the ProgramOvercrowding and poor conditions in California's prisons triggered sweeping changes to the state's correctional system. Has the prioritization of correctional resources toward more serious offenders eased overcrowding and contained costs? How are county jails coping, and have reoffending rates declined? Has crime increased, as critics predicted? PPIC researcher Magnus Lofstrom will outline findings from a new report, and a panel of state and local experts will discuss the effects of recent reforms on crime, costs, and incarceration. Please register in advance. There is no charge to attend, but space is limited. Lunch will be provided.
Report California’s Historic Corrections Reforms By Magnus Lofstrom, Mia Bird, Brandon Martin Sep 27, 2016 California has dramatically lowered incarceration—by about 55,000 inmates since 2006—with no broad increase in crime. But recidivism rates remain high and corrections spending continues to rise.
Report California’s County Jails in the Era of Reform By Sonya Tafoya, Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen Sep 26, 2016 California’s county jails have been profoundly affected by several reforms over the last decade. Most importantly, in 2011, public safety realignment shifted responsibility for large numbers of non-serious, non-violent, and non-sexual offenders from state prisons to county correctional systems. This lowered the state prison population—allowing prisons to prioritize beds for more serious offenders—but increased county jail populations. Three years later, Proposition 47 downgraded a range of drug and property offenses from potential felonies to misdemeanors. The reduced population pressure has allowed jails to prioritize beds for more serious drug and property offenders who are no longer eligible for prison. Despite the growing importance of jails, little is known about the basic characteristics of jail populations. In this report, we analyze state and local data on individuals moving through county correctional systems. Using data from 11 counties, we find that: Reforms altered the offender composition of the jail population, especially among those held on drug and property crimes. After three years under realignment, the number of drug and property offenders in jails increased by 55 percent and 40 percent, respectively. One year after the passage of Proposition 47, the number of drug and property offenders fell by 35 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Length of stay for felony drug and property offenders increased after realignment. For example, median time served for felony drug offenders released in October 2011 was 45 days, compared to 98 days for those released in October 2015. However, length of stay for people who served time for misdemeanors and felony crimes against persons has remained stable. Releases due to overcapacity rose under realignment and dropped after Proposition 47, when jail population pressure eased. The demographic composition of jails has largely remained stable. But the age distribution does show modest signs of change: the share of those ages 18–21 in jail has decreased slightly, as the share of those in their 30s has increased. As jail populations shift toward more serious drug and property offenders, counties and the state will need to consider how jail security and rehabilitative programs might be made more effective. While researchers and policymakers continue to examine the longer-term effects of realignment and Proposition 47, it is also important to keep in mind that the recent reprioritization of jail beds may have implications for crime and recidivism.
blog post Spending on Corrections and Higher Education By Sonya Tafoya, Sarah Bohn Aug 4, 2016 California spends more on corrections and less on higher education today, in relative terms, than at nearly any point in the past thirty years.
blog post Closing California’s Health Insurance Gap By Shannon McConville, Mia Bird May 11, 2016 County jails may provide an opportunity to reach uninsured Californians, improving both public safety and public health.
Report Expanding Health Coverage in California: County Jails as Enrollment Sites By Shannon McConville, Mia Bird May 10, 2016 In 2014, the first year of Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation, the number of Californians with health insurance increased substantially. However, millions of state residents continue to lack comprehensive health coverage, and those who remain uninsured are likely more difficult to enroll through traditional strategies. In this report, we find that uninsured rates are highest for young men and for those with low levels of education, income, and employment. The prevalence of these same characteristics among correctional populations suggests that the justice system—and, in particular, county jails—may offer points of contact for many uninsured individuals who would otherwise be hard to reach. Outreach and enrollment efforts aimed at local jail populations are set within the policy context of California’s 2011 Public Safety Realignment, which created incentives and resources for local corrections agencies to improve reentry outcomes. With expansions in access to health insurance coverage under the ACA, nearly all counties are establishing programs to provide enrollment assistance to jail inmates as part of a more comprehensive reentry strategy. But resources and capacity are limited, so it is important to identify effective models to maximize the potential of county correctional systems as sites of insurance enrollment.
Report How Has Proposition 47 Affected California’s Jail Population? By Sonya Tafoya, Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen Mar 30, 2016 Passed by the voters in 2014, Proposition 47 reduced penalties for certain drug and property crimes. This change led to dramatic declines in the state's jail population, driven by decreases in arrests, convictions, and jail time for Proposition 47 offenders. This research was supported with funding from The California Endowment.
blog post Testimony: Bail and Pretrial Detention By Sonya Tafoya Feb 19, 2016 California’s median bail amount is five times higher than the rest of the nation. Its large urban counties are also more likely than similar counties in the US to hold unsentenced defendants in jail pending trial.
blog post Putting the Governor’s Sentencing Proposal in Context By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Feb 3, 2016 Governor Brown’s proposed ballot measure could significantly alter sentencing in California. It follows the path of decreased reliance on incarceration that the state has been on since 2009.
