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Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

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California’s Dual Jobs Challenges

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Julien Lafortune

An analysis of the latest jobs report for California shows how the state is faring on two key labor market challenges: increasing employment among the unemployed and bringing back those who left the labor force.

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California’s Recovery Backslides

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Julien Lafortune

The number of jobs in California declined last month for the first time since April. Overall, jobs statewide are down 8% compared to a year ago, with face-to-face service sectors being the hardest hit.

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Six Months of Economic Crisis: What Is Next?

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Julien Lafortune

California continues to confront the pandemic and its economic effects. What has this downturn meant for the state’s labor market? And what factors are likely to shape the recovery?

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Looking Ahead to California’s 2021 Labor Market

By Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Julien Lafortune

With a surge in COVID-19 cases in recent months, employment in California has taken a hit. Given the continued challenges posed by the pandemic, what can we expect from the state’s labor market this year?

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California’s Highly Educated Immigrants

By Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Cesar Alesi Perez, Hans Johnson

Recent immigrants to California are among the most educated residents of the state. More than half of the working-age immigrants who arrived over the past ten years hold a bachelor’s or graduate degree.

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