Report Racial Disparities in Law Enforcement Stops By Magnus Lofstrom, Joseph Hayes, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar Oct 13, 2021 Recent debate over police reforms has centered on how law enforcement engages with people of color, prompted by continuing concerns over racial inequities in criminal justice. In our analysis of data for nearly 4 million stops, we examine how interactions—ranging from search to use of force—differ for Black and white people, while considering factors such as stop context and law enforcement agency.
Report Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime? By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar Sep 27, 2023 Among Californians born in 1993 and later, criminal offending has fallen 20 to 25 percent compared to previous generations. This shift in longstanding trends is a driving factor behind the overall decline in crime over the last decades and has several broader implications for the criminal justice system.
blog post California’s Violent Crime Rate Is Diverging from the National Trend By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 1, 2023 In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, California's violent crime rate roughly mirrored the nationwide trend. But as of 2022, California's violent crime rate is nearly one-third higher than the US rate, a divergence driven largely by aggravated assaults.
Report Public Safety Realignment: Impacts So Far By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 28, 2015 Prompted by a federal court order to reduce prison overcrowding, California’s 2011 historic public safety realignment shifted many correctional responsibilities for lower-level felons from the state to counties. The reform was premised on the idea that locals can do a better job, and it was hoped that incarceration rates and corrections costs would fall. At the same time, critics predicted crime would rise. Four years since its implementation, realignment has made several important impacts: Realignment significantly reduced the prison population, but the state did not reach the court-mandated population target until after the passage of Proposition 47 in November 2014, which reduced penalties for many property and drug offenses. The reform challenged county jails and probation departments by making them responsible for a greater number of offenders with a broader range of backgrounds and needs. The county jail population did not rise nearly as much as the prison population fell, reducing the total number of people incarcerated in California. Realignment did not increase violent crime, but auto thefts rose. Research so far shows no dramatic change in recidivism rates. State corrections spending remains high, but there is reason to believe expenditures could drop in the future. Realignment has largely been successful, but the state and county correctional systems face significant challenges. The state needs to regain control of prison medical care, which is now in the hands of a federal receiver. And the state and counties together must make progress in reducing stubbornly high recidivism rates.
Report Recidivism of Felony Offenders in California By Mia Bird, Justin Goss, Viet Nguyen Jun 19, 2019 California’s recent corrections reforms aimed to reduce persistently high recidivism rates. In the years following public safety realignment in 2011, have rearrest and reconviction rates for felony offenders changed?
blog post Big Policy Shift Leads to Small Change in Recidivism By David Lesher Jul 2, 2014 A recent briefing in Sacramento focused on PPIC’s new report on recidivism rates since public safety realignment policy began.
Fact Sheet Arrests in California By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Andrew Skelton Jan 8, 2024 California’s overall arrest rate was historically low in 2022, but the felony arrest rate rose slightly for the first time since 2013. Arrest rates vary widely across counties.
Report Is Public Safety Realignment Reducing Recidivism in California? By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom, Ryken Grattet Jun 27, 2014 Despite sweeping changes to the state’s corrections system, California has not seen dramatic changes in arrests or convictions of released offenders. Overall arrest rates are down. But convictions are up, likely a reflection of new prosecutorial processes. Multiple arrests are also up, possibly because released offenders are now spending more time on the streets. This research was supported with funding from the Smith Richardson Foundation.
Policy Brief Policy Brief: Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Arrests in California By Deepak Premkumar, Thomas Sloan, Magnus Lofstrom, Joseph Hayes Feb 7, 2023 California’s criminal justice system was affected by shelter-in-place orders and other public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with law enforcement directives intended to minimize exposure to the virus. We found that pandemic arrest trends mirror mobility patterns, particularly early on. But other factors also played a role.
Report Alternatives to Incarceration in California By Ryken Grattet, Brandon Martin Apr 17, 2015 Three-plus years after implementing a major realignment of its public safety systems, California continues to face pressure to reduce both its prison and jail populations. California relied on some alternatives to custody-based punishment before realignment but it has been expanding its use of others. Current research on the effects of incarceration and its alternatives offers a general endorsement of the idea that increasing reliance on community-based alternatives is not likely to result in large increases in crime and recidivism. The evidence suggests that the effectiveness of both incarceration and community-based supervision depends on a number of factors, including the rate of incarceration in a given community, the offender characteristics, and the nature of the response to violations during and after supervision. Finally, intensive data collection on county implementation efforts can help the state identify the community-based strategies that produce the best outcomes.
