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What If California’s Drought Continues?

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so far have varied greatly, reflecting different levels of drought preparedness. Urban areas are in the best shape, thanks to sustained investments in diversified water portfolios and conservation. Farmers are more vulnerable, but they are also adapting. The greatest vulnerabilities are in some low-income rural communities where wells are running dry and in California’s wetlands, rivers, and forests, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under extreme threat. Two to three more years of drought will increase challenges in all areas and require continued—and likely increasingly difficult—adaptations. Emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and to prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of numerous native fish species, including most salmon runs. California also needs to start a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.

Report

Alternatives to Incarceration in California

By Ryken Grattet, Brandon Martin

Three-plus years after implementing a major realignment of its public safety systems, California continues to face pressure to reduce both its prison and jail populations. California relied on some alternatives to custody-based punishment before realignment but it has been expanding its use of others. Current research on the effects of incarceration and its alternatives offers a general endorsement of the idea that increasing reliance on community-based alternatives is not likely to result in large increases in crime and recidivism. The evidence suggests that the effectiveness of both incarceration and community-based supervision depends on a number of factors, including the rate of incarceration in a given community, the offender characteristics, and the nature of the response to violations during and after supervision. Finally, intensive data collection on county implementation efforts can help the state identify the community-based strategies that produce the best outcomes.

Report

Policy Priorities for Managing Drought

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

State, federal, and local water managers have worked diligently to reduce the economic, social, and environmental harm from the current drought. But as the drought continues, the challenges will grow more acute. California can learn from experiences to date—and from Australia’s response to its Millennium Drought—to better prepare both for the year ahead and for future droughts. State leaders should address weaknesses in four areas of drought preparation and response, by: 1) improving water use information, 2) setting clear goals and priorities for public health and the environment, 3) promoting water conservation and more resilient water supplies, and 4) strengthening environmental management.

Report

Low-Income Students and School Meal Programs in California

By Caroline Danielson

School nutrition programs help improve nutrition among vulnerable children. In so doing, they help build a better future for these children and the state. Now that California is implementing the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF), there is additional reason to make sure all students who are eligible for free or low-cost meals enroll in these programs. Along with English Learners and foster youth, low-income students—in other words, students who are eligible for free and reduced-price meals—are targeted for additional funds under the LCFF. This renewed focus on enrollment could also prompt further consideration of participation in school nutrition programs.

This report looks at factors that might be linked to variations in student enrollment and participation in free or reduced-price meals. Not surprisingly, we find that districts with higher poverty rates identify higher levels of eligibility than wealthier districts. Low-income high school students appear to be enrolled at levels comparable to younger students, but students in elementary school districts are much more likely to participate in lunch programs than students in other types of districts. We also find that schools in districts with higher shares of foreign-born residents have modestly lower participation levels (but not identification of low-income students). Finally, we find evidence that schools with smaller enrollments are more successful than larger schools at identifying and serving low-income students.

One way to further the goal of full enrollment among low-income students is to cut the large share of low-income students who must submit applications for free or reduced-price meals. Achieving this objective is arguably an important part of a larger state effort to integrate social safety net programs and services.

Report

California’s Water Market, By the Numbers, Update 2012

By Ellen Hanak, Elizabeth Stryjewski

This report provides a check-up on California’s progress with two innovative water management tools: water marketing and groundwater banking. These tools are part of a modern approach that will enable California to manage its scarce water resources more flexibly and sustainably.

This research was supported with funding from the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation.

Statewide Survey

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

By Mark Baldassare, Jennifer Paluch, Dean Bonner, Sonja Petek

Some findings of the current survey:

  • For the first time, a majority of Californians (54%) say they think global warming poses a very serious threat to the state’s future economy and quality of life.
  • A majority of the state’s likely voters (54%) say that presidential candidates’ positions on the environment will be very important in determining how they cast their vote in 2008.
  • Significantly more San Joaquin Valley residents (35%) than residents statewide (25%) identify air pollution as a very serious health threat to them and their families.

This is the 79th PPIC Statewide Survey and the seventh survey on the environment since 2000. This survey is part of a three-year series conducted with funding from The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. The intent of the series is to inform state, local, and federal policymakers, encourage discussion, and raise public awareness about environment, education, and population issues.

California Counts, Report

Who’s In Prison? The Changing Demographics of Incarceration

By Amanda Bailey, Joseph Hayes

This issue of California Counts examines in detail the new demographics of California’s prisons. Since 1990, the number of prisoners in California has risen three times faster than the state's overall adult population, to almost 168,000 prisoners in 2005. Researchers also found that adults younger than 25 account for a declining segment of the prison population while the share of adults 50 and older has nearly tripled, and that the state’s San Joaquin Valley and Inland Empire regions contribute disproportionately to the inmate population.

Report

Urban Development Futures in the San Joaquin Valley

By Michael B. Teitz, Charles Dietzel, William Fulton

Urban Development Futures in the San Joaquin Valley models urban growth in San Joaquin Valley over the next four decades. Its results, which include color maps to illustrate the spread of urbanization, will help policymakers and the public to assess the implications of that growth and to consider a range of policy responses. Taken together, the scenarios point to a tripling of the urbanized land stock by 2040, lower densities, and significant declines in farmland. They also indicate, however, that the Valley’s actual growth will partly depend on which public policy goals are emphasized. Many of these decisions will be made by the Valley’s local governments, which control most land use planning and permitting powers.

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