California’s community college system serves over 2.1 million students, with most expressing the intent to transfer to a four-year institution. But transfer rates are low—only one in five students transfers within four years. As California pursues a goal of 40% baccalaureate completion among working-age residents by 2030, optimizing this critical pathway will be essential. Even modest improvements could substantially increase four-year enrollment and degree completion.

CSU is the leading destination of community college transfers

Transfer students are a critical component of CSU’s student body—more so than at the University of California or most public universities across the nation. Indeed, in fall 2024 transfers made up more than 43% of CSU’s new undergraduate enrollment. But at most CSU campuses, transfers remain below the fall 2020 peak, putting pressure on the system’s overall enrollment growth and threatening its ability to maintain programs and services.

CSU accepts CCC transfer applicants at very high rates: 91% are admitted to at least one CSU campus. Of those admitted, 65% enroll. Both acceptance and enrollment rates vary widely across CSU campuses. For example, the transfer acceptance rate at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo is 21%, but more than 93% at CSU campuses such as Sacramento, Stanislaus, and Domingo Hills.

Many students struggle to transfer—or never do

Despite high acceptance and enrollment rates, successful transfer takes time and persistence. The typical applicant spends nine terms—more than four school years—in the community college system prior applying to CSU. Some applicants are able to apply for transfer sooner, especially those who meet key milestones—such as completing introductory transfer-level math and English courses and enrolling at least 25 units—during the first year of college.

Persistence is critical. Many students—about 30%—apply in more than one term. Almost half of these students had all of their applications denied the first time around and were admitted at a later term.

However, many qualified community college students do not pursue a path to a four-year degree. For example, 21% of students who earned an Associate Degree for Transfer between academic years 2018–19 and 2022–23 never applied to CSU despite guaranteed admission. More than half of these students (32,500) do not appear to have continued on a path to a bachelor’s degree.

Similarly, about 62,700 transfer students (14% of admittees in our study sample, which spans 2018 to 2023) were admitted to CSU but did not end up enrolling in any four-year college.

Improving the transfer pathway

The good news is that when the transfer pathway works, it works. CCC students who successfully transfer to CSU achieve encouraging results: 76% of fall 2020 enrollees graduated within four years. However, 19% left the system without graduating, most of them within the first year after transferring.

Our findings point to four key opportunities for improvement:

Supporting early momentum matters. Helping students navigate and succeed during their first year, whether in the community college or after transferring to the CSU, should be prioritized. Ensuring community college students successfully complete transfer-level English and math in the first year can accelerate transfer-readiness. Better and more proactive advising, flexible scheduling, and increasing on-campus work opportunities could also help students enroll full time.

Understanding why admitted students do not enroll in CSU. We do not know why large numbers of well-prepared students fall off the transfer pathway. Factors such as college costs after financial aid, selectivity, and proximity are ripe for inquiry and innovation. Given that admittees 25 and older were overrepresented among those who did not enroll in any four-year institution, data on labor market outcomes for these students could help to identify ways to connect them to CSU.

Exploring campus-specific variation and student choice. Because there is high variation across individual CSUs in both acceptance and enrollment rates, the systems would benefit from a better understanding of challenges faced by specific CSU campuses and majors. Moreover, about 69,000 admittees to CSU in our sample decided to enroll in another four-year institution. Most (43,000) enrolled in UC, but many went to colleges with higher costs and lower graduation rates than CSU. Enhancing communication and support with prospective students throughout the matriculation process is one way to improve enrollment rates at CSU.

Ensuring more openings at the system’s most selective campuses and on-demand majors. Despite improvements, some CSU campuses and majors continue to be impacted. Further consideration should be given to strategies such as flexible course scheduling, co-locating CCCs and CSUs through shared campuses or satellite centers, and enhancing online or hybrid degree programs. CSU’s new systemwide strategic plan outlines important actions in several of these areas.

Ultimately, the biggest challenges in improving transfer from CCC to CSU are twofold. More California community college students must get to the point of applying to a four-year institution. And both CCC and CSU must work to ensure that students who have become transfer-eligible are able to successfully navigate the transfer process.

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About the Authors

Marisol Cuellar Mejia is a senior fellow at the PPIC Higher Education Center. Her research focuses on community college students and their path towards a four-year degree. Her recent projects have focused on examining statewide reforms to developmental education, recent trends and barriers to transfer from community colleges to four-year colleges, and the economic returns to a college degree. She is also a member of the PPIC Economic Policy Center, where she studies labor market trends. Her other areas of expertise include housing in California, and demographic trends. Before joining PPIC, she worked at Colombia’s National Association of Financial Institutions as an economic analyst, concentrating on issues related to the manufacturing sector and small business. She has also conducted agricultural and commodity market research for the Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers and the National Federation of Palm Oil Growers of Colombia. She holds a master’s degree in economics from Universidad del Rosario and a master’s degree in agricultural and resource economics from the University of California, Davis.

Hans Johnson is a senior fellow at the PPIC Higher Education Center and a member of the PPIC Economic Policy Center. His research focuses on improving college access and completion. He frequently presents his work to policymakers and higher education officials, and he serves as a technical advisor to many organizations seeking to improve college graduation rates, address workforce needs, and engage in long-term capacity planning. His other areas of expertise include international and domestic migration, housing in California, and population projections. Previously, he served as research director at PPIC. Before joining PPIC, he worked as a demographer at the California Research Bureau and at the California Department of Finance. He holds a PhD in demography and a master’s degree in biostatistics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Lynette Ubois is director of content strategy at the Public Policy Institute of California. She leads content planning and implementation, ensuring the effective communication of PPIC’s research, its institutional approach, and its development goals to a broad and diverse audience. She also serves as the executive editor of the PPIC blog, which applies PPIC’s expertise to timely policy topics. Before joining PPIC she worked for Ulysses Press, where she developed a variety of nonfiction books. She has also taught college-level English and English as a second language. She holds a BA in English from Oberlin College and a PhD in English from the University of California, Berkeley.