California’s community college system serves more than 2.1 million students, with most intending to transfer to a four-year institution. But transfer rates are low—among transfer-intending students only 20% transfer within four years. Last week, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, senior fellow at PPIC, presented key findings from a new report examining the transfer pathway. Coauthor and senior fellow Hans Johnson then joined for further discussion.

Transfer students are a critical component of CSU’s student body—more so than at the University of California or most public universities across the nation. In fall 2024, transfers made up more than 43% of CSU’s new undergraduate enrollment. But at most CSU campuses, transfers remain below the fall 2020 peak, slowing the system’s overall enrollment growth and threatening its ability to maintain programs and services.

The transfer pathway is challenging for many. The typical student spent nine terms (including summer terms) in community college before applying—about three and a half years.” I think this is probably one of the most powerful results of this research,” said Cuellar Mejia. “Everybody knew students were spending forever in community college before transfer, but now we have … a number.” Students from underrepresented groups faced even longer timelines. Black and Latino applicants, as well as those 25 and older, took significantly more time to reach the point of applying.

Early momentum is a key element of successful transfer. Students who completed gateway math and English courses, earned at least 24 transferable units, and maintained a GPA of 3.25 or above during their first year were more likely to transfer and complete their bachelor’s degrees. “We saw that students who achieve early markers of success not only spend less time in community college but were also more likely to enroll in a four-year institution,” said Cuellar Mejia.

One encouraging finding: 92% of community college applicants were admitted to CSU. But significant opportunities for enrollment growth remain untapped. About 62,000 students—14% of admittees in our study sample, which spans 2018 to 2023—never enrolled in any four-year institution. Another 21% of Associate Degree for Transfer recipients—students who earn a degree designed to guarantee admission to CSU—never applied to CSU at all.

“It’s heartbreaking, right?” said Johnson. “Students who have graduated high school, went to community college, did everything they needed to do, applied in a timely manner, met all the deadlines, did everything right, were admitted, and then they didn’t go.” He emphasized the need to survey these students directly to understand barriers related to cost, distance, or other factors.

Among those who did enroll at CSU, outcomes were positive: 76% of fall 2020 transfer students graduated by spring 2024, with 69% finishing within three years.

The researchers offered several recommendations to improve transfer outcomes, including better support for early momentum in community colleges, enhanced communication with prospective students throughout the enrollment process, and innovative strategies to address capacity constraints at popular campuses.

Johnson stressed the broader importance of transfer pathways: “For our state to help students achieve their own academic goals, we need to ensure that transfer works. And it works for some people, but not for enough.”