Earning a college degree remains the most effective way that individuals can improve their long-term economic and career success. Perhaps surprisingly, given the state’s extensive higher education system and strong graduation rates at four-year universities, California-born young adults are less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than young adults in most other states.
The good news is that educational attainment is increasing and California is closing the gap. In 2013, only 26% of young adults born in California had earned at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 30% among those born in other states. By 2024, those numbers had increased to 35% and 37%, respectively.
California still has a long way to go to catch up with states that have the best outcomes. Nationally, California ranks 26th among the 50 states. The top-performing states have bachelor’s degree attainment rates in excess of 50%: Massachusetts (52%), New Jersey (52%), and Connecticut (51%). California outperforms some large states (Florida 32%, Texas 31%) but lags behind others (New York 46%, Pennsylvania 42%, and Illinois 41%). The lowest-performing states are in the intermountain west and south, with rates as low as 25% in Idaho and New Mexico. States with high bachelor’s attainment rates generally have better economic well-being than states with the lowest rates.
California lags the rest of the country partly because our higher education system relies more on community colleges than systems in most other states. California has one of the highest shares of students going to community college after graduating high school and ranks near the bottom for the share of high school graduates enrolling directly in four-year colleges. In contrast, states that send more high school graduates directly to four-year colleges tend to have greater bachelor’s degree attainment than those that send large shares to community colleges.
However, large shares of students going straight to four-year colleges doesn’t necessarily result in high bachelor’s attainment. States like Louisiana and Georgia have some of the highest shares of direct four-year college enrollment among high school graduates but rank even lower than California in bachelor’s attainment. The reason? Public universities in those states have low graduation rates. But California has some of the best graduation rates in the nation at its public four-year universities.
A major problem for California lies in transfer: too many students are attending community college instead of four-year institutions after high school, and too few are transferring. While students who start at community college are much less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than those who start at a four-year college, research suggests that those who do end up transferring have equally comparable chances of earning a bachelor’s degree.
California has embarked on a number of programs and policies designed to improve transfer rates, including dual admission and the Associate Degree for Transfer. Even so, another and perhaps more efficient strategy would be to increase capacity at in-demand public universities for first-time freshmen, ensuring that more California high school graduates are able to begin their college years at schools with relatively high graduation rates.
Ultimately, to achieve California’s ambitious goals for bachelor’s attainment, examining what other states are doing well is an important step, especially when it comes to other large and diverse states.