Proposition 50, which temporarily replaces California’s existing congressional districts with an alternative map designed to elect more Democrats, passed easily last week; it currently has 64.6% of the vote. This outcome was part of a generally good election night for Democrats across the nation, as voters expressed their unhappiness with the direction of the country. The results point to relatively high voter engagement and may signal the revival of Democratic fortunes, but they do not necessarily indicate a change in voter attitudes toward the redistricting reform they set aside.

Voter engagement with Prop 50 was quite high. In the early-October PPIC Statewide Survey, 68% of likely voters said they considered the outcome of the measure to be very important, and 56% were planning to vote yes. Current data show that about 42% of eligible Californians cast a ballot, a larger share than in initiative special elections in 2005 (35%) or 2009 (21%). However, the turnout for Prop 50 was lower than turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial recall (52%); it was comparable to the 2022 midterm election (41%) and the 2003 gubernatorial recall (43%). And it did not come close to the turnout for a typical presidential election (60% in 2024), to say nothing of the nearly unprecedented turnout in 2020 (71%). In its margin of victory, Prop 50 was similar to the 2021 gubernatorial recall (62% keep Newsom) and the 2020 presidential election (63% Biden, 34% Trump).

The Prop 50 outcome suggests that the coalition Democrats rode to victory in the 2020 presidential election might be reemerging. Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost significant amounts of support among 18-to-29-year-old (75% to 58%) and Latino (75% to 59%) voters. If a yes vote on Prop 50 is treated as a vote for Democrats, Democratic support among each of these groups returned to something much closer to 2020 Democratic levels, according to a Prop 50 exit poll (18-to-29-year-olds: 80% yes; Latinos: 71% yes). Indeed, while a county’s vote for president in 2024 was an excellent predictor of its support for Prop 50, support in counties with larger Latino populations was stronger than the vote for Harris in 2024. Registered Democrats overwhelmingly supported Prop 50 both in our October survey (84%) and in the exit poll (96%).

Before the election, we predicted that victory for Prop 50 would require overcoming broad voter skepticism of politicians and parties by making the vote about President Trump. In our early October survey, 67% disapproved of Trump and 80% of these disapprovers said they were voting yes. By early November, disapproval of Trump was similar but support for Prop 50 was higher than in our early October survey, with 65% disapproving of Trump and 92% of disapprovers voting yes, according to exit polling. California voters in the exit poll were lukewarm about the Democratic party (50% favorable), but a third of those with unfavorable views voted for Prop 50.

Strong support for Prop 50 did not necessarily reflect negative views of the redistricting commission. In our October survey, 72% of California voters and a higher share of yes (77%) than no (67%) voters said that the redistricting commission had mostly been a good thing. Likewise, 92% of voters in the exit polls felt districts should be drawn by an independent commission, even though most of them (63%) voted to suspend the map California’s independent commission had drawn. If Prop 50 had involved a permanent end to the commission—instead of a temporary pause in response to the partisan redistricting in Texas—it might have had a much harder road to victory.

With Prop 50 on the books, attention now turns to the 2026 midterm election, which the measure is meant to influence. Voter engagement with Prop 50 hints at a midterm election with high but not unprecedented turnout and a strong Democratic performance. At some level, this is not a surprise. A good midterm performance is typical for the party that does not hold the White House, especially if the president is unpopular—as President Trump is currently. But the election is many months away, and much can change between now and then.

What does seem certain is that, due to Prop 50, California Democrats will win more seats than they did in 2024 and hold an absolutely dominant position in the state’s congressional delegation. Will other blue states follow California’s lead and gerrymander for partisan advantage? And how will red state governors and legislators respond to Prop 50? California voters who supported Prop 50 have changed the playing field in their state; they will now have to wait until November 2026 to learn if the measure has an impact on party control of Congress.