Election Day finally arrives tomorrow. While Californians prefer the Democratic tickets for president, US senator, and the US House by large margins, the nation as a whole has seen a very tight presidential race filled with unique challenges—including ongoing allegations of potential voter fraud and concerns about mail-in ballots. With these conversations in play, how much confidence do Californians have in how votes are cast and counted, both in their home state and nationwide?

State elections. More than half of adults and likely voters say they have either a great deal or quite a lot of confidence (adults: 32% great deal, 21% quite a lot; likely voters: 43% great deal, 20% quite a lot) in California’s voting system. Furthermore, about a quarter of adults and 17% of likely voters say they have some confidence; only about two in ten of each say they have very little. Despite allegations involving the validity of the 2020 presidential election, these numbers have stayed consistent since that time.

But we do see very notable differences across party lines today. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (79%) express confidence in California’s elections compared to about half of independents (52%) and about a quarter of Republicans (27%). About four in ten Republicans say they have very little confidence in how votes are cast and counted in California.

Confidence varies across the state’s regions. Majorities in Los Angeles (55%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (69%) say they have high levels of confidence in California’s voting system, while less than half in Orange/San Diego (49%), the Central Valley (41%), and the Inland Empire (39%) say the same.

Sentiments are also somewhat mixed across demographic groups. Less than half of Latinos express high levels of confidence compared to majorities of other racial and ethnic groups. Confidence increases with educational attainment and with income.

Presidential election. More than six in ten adults and likely voters say they are at least somewhat confident that, across the country, votes for president will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election, including over a quarter (28% adults, 38% likely voters) who say they are very confident. Fewer say they are not too or not at all confident. According to a Gallup poll conducted in late September, Californians overall (65%) are more likely than adults nationwide (57%) to express confidence on this issue; as in California, there is a partisan divide on this issue nationwide.

In California, a plurality of Democrats and roughly three in ten independents are very confident, compared to just 13% of Republicans. In fact, nearly a quarter of Republicans say they are not confident at all that presidential votes will be cast and counted accurately.

Most residents across demographic and regional groups are at least somewhat confident, but there are some nuances. Across regions of the state, San Francisco Bay Area residents are most likely to be very confident, while residents in Inland Empire residents are least likely. The shares saying they are very confident increases with rising education, income, and age, and shares saying this are similar among men (31%) and women (26%). Californians who are Republican, white, have only a high school diploma, are ages 35 to 54, and reside in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, or the Central Valley are more likely than others to say they are not at all confident that votes for the presidential race will be accurately counted this year. Men (12%) and women (13%) are also about as likely to say they are not at all confident.

Early voting has already been taking place across the state. Tomorrow, California and the nation will have a final chance to cast their ballots in 2024’s contentious, high-stakes general election. In the aftermath, the PPIC Statewide Survey will continue to monitor Californians’ views on democracy, state and nationwide elections, and the voting process.