With Election Day around the corner, close to 90% of California likely voters say that voting is very important. Survey analyst Lauren Mora and associate survey director and research fellow Dean Bonner discussed this positive perception of voting at last week’s briefing of the October statewide survey, along with voter preferences on candidates and ballot measures—as well as Californians’ views of the government.
California voters believe in the value of voting, as over 80% across regions and demographic groups agree that it’s very important. Voter enthusiasm has ramped up as well; Mora indicated that nearly 6 in 10 likely voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president, a share that has grown 19 points since spring.
In the top-of-ticket race, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump (59% to 33%) with majority support across most regions and demographic groups; in the US Senate race, 63% of likely voters support Adam Schiff over 37% for Steve Garvey.
A gender gap does exist around support for the Democratic versus the Republican presidential candidate, Bonner observed, with men 7 points more likely than women to support former president Trump. A deeper dive reveals even larger differences. “Among likely voters with household income less than $60,000 … there is a 14-point difference between men and women,” Bonner said. Looking at other racial/ethnic groups beyond Latino and white voters—Asian American, African American, and multiracial voters—reveals an 18-point divide between men and women.
Voters will also weigh in on several state propositions; the survey examined support for all ten. Mora highlighted Prop 36, which changes sentencing for certain drug and theft crimes, as garnering the most interest and support among likely voters: about 3 in 4 support the measure. Other measures such as Prop 3, the constitutional right to marry; Prop 4, a $10 billion climate bond; and Prop 35, permanent funding for Medi-Cal, also have solid majority support among likely voters.
Heading into the election, a third of Californians continue to name the economy as the prime concern for the state and a quarter rank it as the top priority for the country, according to Mora. But political extremism and immigration landed in the top three national concerns when people chose issues from a list. Democrats are more likely to cite political extremism while Republicans call out immigration. Worries over these issues have surfaced at the same time that most Californians express dissatisfaction with how democracy itself is working in the US. “Satisfaction with democracy does not eclipse 50% among any regional or demographic group,” Mora said.
Bonner noted some concern among Californians about ineligible people casting a ballot but emphasized that 6 in 10 are not too or not at all concerned—and most research shows that voter fraud is relatively rare.
“Nearly 2 in 3 likely voters have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the system in which votes are counted, with 43% saying they have a great deal of confidence,” Bonner said, adding, “Everyone should register to vote. Everyone should turn out at the polls because voting really does make a difference.”
