California’s next governor will take the helm at a time of profound demographic transition. California remains the most populous state in the nation, home to roughly 39.5 million residents as of mid-2025—and in absolute terms, the state is still growing. California’s Department of Finance projects modest increases to 39.7 million by 2030 and 40.5 million by 2040. But the nature of that growth has changed dramatically, and that shift will shape the policy environment of the next decade.

The fundamentals. Slow growth is the central demographic reality facing the next governor. Since 2000, California has had the lowest growth rates in its history as a state. From 2010 to 2020 it grew by 5.8%—slower than the national rate—and for the first time ever lost a seat in the US House of Representatives. That slowdown contrasts sharply with 20th century trends, when California’s population surged from under 2 million in 1900 to 34 million by 2000. Today’s California is no longer a rapid-growth frontier. It is a mature, high-cost, globally connected state whose population is stabilizing rather than booming.

Key Issues

The slowdown continues. The pandemic intensified the state’s population slowdown. Between 2020 and 2022, California lost about 322,000 residents, driven primarily by a spike in migration to other states and a temporary collapse in international migration. Since then, the population has edged upward again as immigration has rebounded and migration to other states has slowed; the state gained about 309,000 people between 2022 and 2025. Yet many residents are still choosing to leave the state, with net losses approaching 1.3 million since 2020, and birth rates have fallen to record lows—down 30% since 2008. Together, these forces imply modest growth at best in the near term. The state’s reliance on immigration also makes its growth subject to federal immigration policy to a greater degree than other states.

Growth moves inland. Only 21 of California’s 58 counties have grown since 2020. Riverside County has seen the largest gains, while Los Angeles County has lost more residents than any other. Growth rates are highest in inland and foothill counties such as Placer, Madera, and Yuba, while some rural areas continue to shrink. This uneven pattern will require shifts in housing, infrastructure, and representation as residents move inland, away from traditional coastal centers.

Diversity is the norm. Diversity will remain California’s defining demographic feature. No single racial or ethnic group currently holds a majority. Roughly 41% of residents are Latino, 34% white, 17% Asian American or Pacific Islander, and smaller shares are Black (5%), multiracial (3%), or Native American (less than 1%). The state’s youth are especially diverse—more than half of Californians under 25 are Latino—while older residents skew white. That generational contrast will shape education, workforce development, and retirement systems for decades. Over 10 million Californians are immigrants, and 28% of residents are foreign born—more than twice the national share. A majority of these immigrants are naturalized citizens, and most others are legally authorized residents.

Aging accelerates. About one in six Californians are 65 or older today, a number expected to climb to one in four by 2050. Even so, California is not old by national standards, and is in fact the twelfth youngest state in median age (38.4 vs. 39.2 nationwide). This dual reality—an aging population within a relatively young state—creates both fiscal pressure and opportunity. Demand for health care, long-term care, and income in retirement will grow, even as a diverse younger workforce offers economic dynamism if properly supported.

Population trends carry direct political consequences. Both the US and California are on pace to have their slowest rates of growth since records have been kept. Slower growth relative to other states has already cost California one congressional seat and could cost several more after 2030. Within the state, regions gaining population—such as the San Joaquin Valley, Inland Empire, and Sacramento area—will increase in influence relative to slower-growing coastal and rural regions. Migration patterns may also subtly reshape the electorate: residents leaving California skew somewhat more conservative than those who remain, suggesting a gradual leftward shift in the state’s political center of gravity.

For the next governor, the message is clear. California’s population is large, diverse, and globally connected—but growth is slow, uneven, and increasingly dependent on immigration rather than births or new residents from other states. Policies that affect housing affordability, economic opportunity, immigration integration, and regional development will influence whether the state stabilizes and grows modestly or enters a prolonged period of demographic stagnation. The constraints are real, but so are the opportunities.