Race and Voting in California

• • Latinos, Asian Americans, and African Americans are less likely to vote than whites.
    Our surveys over the past year indicate that, among adult citizens, 47% of Latinos, 54% of Asian Americans, and 54% of African Americans are likely to vote, compared to 65% of non-Hispanic whites. The state’s likely voters are disproportionately white: according to US Census estimates, whites make up 41% of the state’s adult population, but our surveys find that they comprise 55% of the state’s likely voters. Latinos—California’s largest racial/ethnic group—represent 35% of the adult population, but they account for only 21% of those most likely to vote. Asian Americans comprise 15% of the adult population and 14% of likely voters. The share of African American likely voters matches their representation in the adult population (6%).
  • Most African American, Latino, and Asian American likely voters are Democrats.
    An overwhelming majority of African American likely voters (73%) and a majority of Latino (58%) and Asian American (54%) likely voters are registered as Democrats; far fewer are registered as Republicans (5% African Americans, 16% Latinos, 19% Asian Americans). Party registration among white likely voters is more evenly divided, with 40% registered as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 21% as independents (previously called “decline to state” and now called “no party preference” voters).
  • Latino and white likely voters are more ideologically divided.
    Thirty-seven percent of Latino likely voters identify themselves as politically liberal, while 32% identify as middle-of-the-road and 31% identify as conservative. White likely voters are as likely to identify as liberal (37%) as they are to identify as conservative (37%); 26% call themselves middle-of-the-road. African American and Asian American likely voters are much more likely to be ideologically liberal (38% and 43%, respectively) than conservative (22% and 24%).
  • Latino and Asian American likely voters tend to be young; income and education levels vary.
    Latino (72%) and Asian American (71%) likely voters are more likely than African American (47%) and white (43%) likely voters to be younger than 55. Indeed, about four in ten Asian American (36%) and Latino (38%) likely voters are younger than 35, compared to only 11% of African Americans and 14% of whites. One in four Latino likely voters (25%) and about one in three African American likely voters (35%) are college graduates, compared to 44% of white and 64% of Asian American likely voters. Pluralities of Latino and African American likely voters (38% and 37%) have household incomes of less than $40,000, while about one in three earn $80,000 or more (32% Latinos, 34% African Americans). In contrast, about half or more of Asian American and white likely voters (60% and 50%) earn $80,000 or more.
  • Most likely voters are US born, but half of Asian American likely voters are immigrants.
    Nearly all African American (96%) and white (94%) likely voters are native-born US citizens, compared to 70% of Latino likely voters; Asian American likely voters are equally as likely to be naturalized as native-born citizens (50% to 50%). In 2020 surveys, strong majorities of African American (91%), Asian American (75%), and Latino (72%) likely voters have disapproved of the way President Trump is handling his job, as have majorities of white likely voters (56%). Overwhelming majorities of African American (87%), white (84%), Asian American (75%), and Latino (72%) likely voters think they can trust the federal government in Washington to do what is right only some of the time or none of the time.

Sources: Seven PPIC Statewide Surveys from September 2019 to July 2020, including 7,243 likely voters. 2014–2018 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, US Census Bureau.

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