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Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment

By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty

Over the past five years, enrollment has fallen in nearly three-quarters of California school districts, and the trend is expected to continue into the next decade. Faster declines could bring pressure to close schools, along with concerns about the students and neighborhoods bearing the costs of downsizing.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief: Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment

By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty, Stephanie Barton

California counties serving higher shares of low-income, English Learner (EL), and Asian, Black, and Latino students expect greater enrollment losses in coming years. In the past, schools that closed due to falling enrollment had more low-income and EL students as well as lower test scores than the rest of the district.

Fact Sheet

Financing California’s Public Schools

By Julien Lafortune

K–12 funding has been at record-high levels in recent years, and California’s per student spending is now slightly above the national average. Spending is higher for low-income students, English Learners, and foster youth. However, enrollment declines, rising costs, and the expiration of pandemic funding pose fiscal challenges for school districts.

event

Assessing Transitional Kindergarten’s Impact on Elementary School Trajectories

California’s Transitional Kindergarten (TK) program provides an early year of schooling within the K–12 system. Launched a decade ago with limited eligibility, TK will soon be open to all four-year-olds. Taking stock of the program’s impact so far—especially among multilingual and special education students—can help TK expansion succeed. PPIC researchers Julien Lafortune and Laura Hill will discuss a new report that examines TK’s impact through grade five.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief: Assessing Transitional Kindergarten’s Impact on Elementary School Trajectories

By Julien Lafortune, Laura Hill, Mary Severance

Transitional Kindergarten (TK) program provides an early year of schooling within California’s K–12 system. Now that the program is being expanded to all four-year-olds, it is important to take stock of its impact so far—especially among multilingual students and students with disabilities, who might benefit from additional support early on.

Report

Assessing Transitional Kindergarten’s Impact on Elementary School Trajectories

By Julien Lafortune, Laura Hill

California’s Transitional Kindergarten (TK) program provides an early year of schooling within the K–12 system. Launched a decade ago with limited eligibility, TK will soon be open to all four-year-olds. Taking stock of the program’s impact so far—especially among multilingual and special education students—can help TK expansion succeed.

blog post

School Vaccination Rates Vary across California

By Shalini Mustala, Shannon McConville

Maintaining adequate school vaccination rates is essential for public health and community well-being, but many schools across the state could be vulnerable to disease outbreaks due to lower vaccination rates.

blog post

Private Schooling Played a Small Role in Declining Public School Enrollment

By Emmanuel Prunty, Julien Lafortune

Private schooling in California increased substantially during the pandemic. Still, it accounts for a small share of total K–12 enrollment and is not a major factor in public school declines, which are driven largely by broader demographic shifts.

Report

Examining the Reach of Targeted School Funding

By Julien Lafortune, Joseph Herrera, Niu Gao

Under California’s ten-year-old funding formula, districts with higher shares of high-need students receive additional dollars on top of base funding. Districts have flexibility around spending these funds, but when money is not fully directed to the intended students and schools, the impact on achievement gaps is diluted.

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