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What If California’s Drought Continues?

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so far have varied greatly, reflecting different levels of drought preparedness. Urban areas are in the best shape, thanks to sustained investments in diversified water portfolios and conservation. Farmers are more vulnerable, but they are also adapting. The greatest vulnerabilities are in some low-income rural communities where wells are running dry and in California’s wetlands, rivers, and forests, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under extreme threat. Two to three more years of drought will increase challenges in all areas and require continued—and likely increasingly difficult—adaptations. Emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and to prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of numerous native fish species, including most salmon runs. California also needs to start a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.

Report

California’s Need for Skilled Workers

By Sarah Bohn

If recent trends continue, California is likely to face a shortage of workers with some college education but less than a bachelor’s degree by 2025. State and federal policymakers have increased their focus on boosting educational opportunities for this segment of the workforce. This report examines labor market outcomes among workers with some college training to shed light on the types of jobs that hold the most promise for future workers and the state economy.

Occasional Paper, Report

State-Local Fiscal Conflicts in California: From Proposition 13 to Proposition 1A

By Elisa Barbour

Fiscal relations between California’s state and local governments have been contentious for the past three decades. The conflicts in intergovernmental relations can be traced back to Proposition 13, approved by the voters in 1978, as well as to subsequent state ballot initiatives that have fiscally constrained state, city, and county governments. By giving the state government more control over local revenue and also limiting state and local taxing and spending power, the voter measures have engendered a “zero-sum” political atmosphere in which fiscal considerations have dominated intergovernmental policymaking. However, many of the problematic aspects of the post-Proposition 13 local fiscal system have been the product not of ballot initiatives but of government actions or inactions. Within voter-imposed fiscal constraints, California’s state and local governments have had substantial room to shape fiscal and governance outcomes. This paper traces the evolution of the state-local relationship in California since Proposition 13 and concludes that California governments need to move beyond fighting over fiscal resources and to focus instead on the core problems facing the state.

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