Fact Sheet Felony Arrests in California By Magnus Lofstrom, Alexandria Gumbs, Joseph Hayes, Brandon Martin Apr 14, 2020 After Prop 47, the share of California felony arrests fell. In this fact sheet we review the most common arrests, for violent offenses and property crimes, and discuss the disproportionate arrest rate of African Americans—who are more likely to be released without charges. Data also shows higher arrest rates in less populous areas and greater racial discrepancies in dense areas.
Fact Sheet California’s Prison Population By Joseph Hayes, Justin Goss, Heather Harris, Alexandria Gumbs Jul 22, 2019 Many of California’s inmates live in overcrowded conditions, despite successful efforts to stabilize the prison population systemwide. This fact sheet provides a snapshot of the state’s prisons, highlighting the most current information on racial disparities, health costs, and other key issues.
blog post Crime Rates Stable Overall, But Some Counties See Big Changes By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 25, 2017 Corrections reforms in California have not resulted in a broad surge in crime. But the statewide numbers mask substantial differences across counties.
blog post Next Steps for Proposition 57 By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Nov 9, 2016 The passage of Proposition 57 brings significant changes to California’s criminal justice system.
Report California’s County Jails in the Era of Reform By Sonya Tafoya, Mia Bird, Ryken Grattet, Viet Nguyen Sep 26, 2016 California’s county jails have been profoundly affected by several reforms over the last decade. Most importantly, in 2011, public safety realignment shifted responsibility for large numbers of non-serious, non-violent, and non-sexual offenders from state prisons to county correctional systems. This lowered the state prison population—allowing prisons to prioritize beds for more serious offenders—but increased county jail populations. Three years later, Proposition 47 downgraded a range of drug and property offenses from potential felonies to misdemeanors. The reduced population pressure has allowed jails to prioritize beds for more serious drug and property offenders who are no longer eligible for prison. Despite the growing importance of jails, little is known about the basic characteristics of jail populations. In this report, we analyze state and local data on individuals moving through county correctional systems. Using data from 11 counties, we find that: Reforms altered the offender composition of the jail population, especially among those held on drug and property crimes. After three years under realignment, the number of drug and property offenders in jails increased by 55 percent and 40 percent, respectively. One year after the passage of Proposition 47, the number of drug and property offenders fell by 35 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Length of stay for felony drug and property offenders increased after realignment. For example, median time served for felony drug offenders released in October 2011 was 45 days, compared to 98 days for those released in October 2015. However, length of stay for people who served time for misdemeanors and felony crimes against persons has remained stable. Releases due to overcapacity rose under realignment and dropped after Proposition 47, when jail population pressure eased. The demographic composition of jails has largely remained stable. But the age distribution does show modest signs of change: the share of those ages 18–21 in jail has decreased slightly, as the share of those in their 30s has increased. As jail populations shift toward more serious drug and property offenders, counties and the state will need to consider how jail security and rehabilitative programs might be made more effective. While researchers and policymakers continue to examine the longer-term effects of realignment and Proposition 47, it is also important to keep in mind that the recent reprioritization of jail beds may have implications for crime and recidivism.
Report Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom May 19, 2015 When California’s historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment’s first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment’s first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California’s reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California’s property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states—so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies—and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states.
blog post Crime Rates Down, But Not Everywhere By Magnus Lofstrom Nov 11, 2014 Most of California’s counties saw lower crime rates in 2013, according to the latest data. Violent crime dropped in 41 out of the 58 counties, and property crime dropped in 37 counties.
blog post Testimony: Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom Jan 30, 2014 As legislators prepare to consider the state budget, the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee took a broad look at public safety realignment at a hearing this week. The committee invited PPIC research fellow Magnus Lofstrom to testify about the impact of this major change in corrections policy on crime in California.
