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What If California’s Drought Continues?

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so far have varied greatly, reflecting different levels of drought preparedness. Urban areas are in the best shape, thanks to sustained investments in diversified water portfolios and conservation. Farmers are more vulnerable, but they are also adapting. The greatest vulnerabilities are in some low-income rural communities where wells are running dry and in California’s wetlands, rivers, and forests, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under extreme threat. Two to three more years of drought will increase challenges in all areas and require continued—and likely increasingly difficult—adaptations. Emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and to prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of numerous native fish species, including most salmon runs. California also needs to start a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.

blog post

Bay Area Tops in Population Growth Rates

By Hans Johnson

For the first time since the 1860s, the Bay Area—long the slowest-growing urban region—is experiencing faster growth rates than any other region of the state.

Report

Driving Change: Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled in California

By Ellen Hanak, Louise Bedsworth, Jed Kolko

Can Californians cut down on their driving? Encouraging job growth near transit stations will help. So will pursuing policies that raise the cost of driving. This report examines California’s progress in these and other areas, finding both opportunities and challenges ahead.

This research was supported with funding from The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, as part of the California 2025 project on the state's future, and the David A. Coulter Family Foundation.

Report

Economic Development: The Local Perspective

By Max Neiman, Daniel Krimm

Since Proposition 13 in 1978 restricted property tax income, California’s local governments have increased their economic development activities, especially in the areas of land development and retail sales. Such measures have provoked criticism, but local officials say they have few alternatives. This paper presents a detailed survey of local economic development policies and activities. It includes assessments of their successes and failures by local officials. The results show that significant barriers to local economic activity exist, among them an inadequate state transportation infrastructure, high energy costs, and lack of an appropriately trained workforce.

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