SAN FRANCISCO, October 23, 2024—With the November election just weeks away, six in ten or more likely voters say they would vote yes on statewide ballot measures to codify in the California Constitution the right to marry regardless of sex or race (Proposition 3), to authorize $10 billion in state borrowing for water, wildfire prevention, and climate projects (Prop 4), and to make permanent the existing tax on managed health care insurance plans to provide Medi-Cal funding (Prop 35). A slight majority support a ballot measure to authorize $10 billion in state borrowing for public school and community college facilities (Prop 2), while a ballot measure to increase penalties for certain theft and drug crimes (Prop 36) continues to have the support of around seven in ten likely voters. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Sixty-seven percent of likely voters would vote yes on Prop 3, the right to marry, while 32 percent would vote no. On Prop 4, the climate bond, 60 percent would vote yes, with 38 percent saying they would vote no. Sixty-two percent of likely voters would vote yes on Prop 35, the “MCO tax” to support Medi-Cal funding, while 36 percent would vote no.

Prop 2 on educational facilities borrowing is favored by a slight majority of likely voters, with 52 percent saying they would vote yes and 46 percent saying they would vote no. Meanwhile, Prop 36 on crime sentences is favored by 73 percent of likely voters (25% would vote no), similar to views in PPIC’s September survey (71% support).

“Six in ten or more would vote yes on Proposition 3 on the right to marriage, Prop 4 on the climate bond, Prop 35 on Medi-Cal funding, and Prop 36 on increasing crime sentences, while a slim majority support Prop 2 on the education bond,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy.

The new PPIC Statewide Survey also finds:

• Harris/Walz and Schiff maintain wide leads; Democrats lead in likely voters’ overall preferences for US House candidates. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Harris/Walz ticket in the presidential election. This is a sizeable lead over the 33 percent saying they would vote for Trump/Vance, a margin similar to that in September (60% Harris/Walz, 29% Trump/Vance). In the US Senate race, Democratic congressman Adam Schiff holds a 63 percent to 37 percent lead over professional baseball representative Steve Garvey, a Republican, virtually unchanged from July (64% to 33%) and September (63% to 35%).

  Sixty-one percent of likely voters say they would opt for their local Democratic candidate in the election for the US House of Representatives, while 38 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate. Across the ten competitive House districts according to the Cook Political Report (Districts 3, 9, 13, 22, 27, 40, 41, 45, 47, and 49), support is about evenly divided for the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate (50% to 48%).

  “By similarly wide margins, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz lead Donald Trump and J.D. Vance in the presidential race and Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey in the Senate race,” Baldassare said. “Democratic candidates lead Republicans overall in the US House races.”

• Economic conditions, housing, and homelessness are likely voters’ top state issues; political extremism/threats to democracy, the economy, and immigration are the most important national problems. Asked to name the most important issue facing people in California today, nearly three in ten likely voters (28%) say the cost of living, the economy, and jobs, followed by housing costs and availability (19%) and homelessness (14%). When it comes to the most important problem facing the US, the top issues for California likely voters are political extremism or threats to democracy (25%), the economy, unemployment, and jobs (19%), and immigration (18%).

  “California voters mention economic conditions, housing costs, and homelessness as the most important state issues,” Baldassare said. “And they choose political extremism or threats to democracy, economic conditions, and immigration as the most important US problems.”

• Enthusiasm among California voters is high. About nine in ten likely voters (89%) say that voting in 2024 is very important to them, and another 9 percent say it is somewhat important. Voters across party lines place a high level of importance on voting this year, with 91 percent of both Democrats and Republicans, and 83 percent of independents, saying it is very important.

  Fifty-eight percent of likely voters are either extremely enthusiastic (36%) or very enthusiastic (22%) about voting for president this year. This level of enthusiasm is higher than six months ago (April 2024: 25% extremely enthusiastic, 14% very enthusiastic). Today, Democrats (41% extremely, 24% very) and Republicans (43% extremely, 17% very) express a higher level of enthusiasm than independents (21% extremely, 20% very) about voting for president this year.

  “Overwhelming majorities of likely voters say that voting in the 2024 election is very important, and about six in ten are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president this year,” Baldassare said.

• Most Californians are pessimistic about the direction of the state and the nation. Majorities of adults (60%) and likely voters (59%) say things in California are going in the wrong direction (94% Republicans, 66% independents, 39% Democrats), while strong majorities (69% adults, 69% likely voters) say things in the US are going in the wrong direction (94% Republicans, 76% independents, 55% Democrats).

  On the economic front, majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (58%) think California will have bad times financially in the next 12 months (84% Republicans, 68% independents, 44% Democrats). Sixty percent of adults and 53 percent of likely voters expect the US to have bad times financially in the next 12 months (77% Republicans, 63% independents, 43% Democrats).

  “Majorities of Californians and likely voters think that the state and nation are going in the wrong direction and expect the state and nation to have bad times financially in the next 12 months, with partisans divided in these assessments,” Baldassare said.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,646 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.7 percent for the 1,137 likely voters. Interviewing took place from October 7–15, 2024. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.