Tax Day arrives tomorrow, in the wake of extensive changes to the taxation and spending landscape introduced by the recent federal spending bill (HR 1). In general, state and local tax revenue is directed to services such as health care and education, as well as public infrastructure such as roads, ports, and utilities. While Californians may support specific taxes, growing numbers have begun to feel overburdened, leading many to reconsider their views on the size of state government and the taxes they pay in the Golden State.

As recently as February 2024 Californians were divided on the size of government: 49% preferred lower taxes and a state government that provides fewer services, while 48% preferred higher taxes and a state government that provides more services.

Two years later, the preference has shifted. A majority now want lower taxes and fewer services (55% lower taxes/fewer services, 44% higher taxes/more services), according to our February 2026 survey. This view is widely held, with half or more across most regions and demographic groups preferring a smaller government. As might be expected, most Democrats prefer higher taxes and more services, while most Republicans—and independents—prefer lower taxes and fewer services.

Californians have also changed their views of the state and local tax system. Today a record high 63% say the system is not too fair or not at all fair. When asked about the state and local taxes they pay, they are even more negative: nearly 70% say they pay much more (33%) or somewhat more (36%) than they should, and a similar share agrees across regions and demographic groups—except those with incomes less than $40,000. Notably, the share saying they pay more than they should increases with rising income (54% less than $40,000, 69% $40,000 to $99,999, 72% $100,000 or more).

Opinions of the tax system and their individual tax burden affect how Californians feel about the size of government. Those who think the state and local tax system is unfair are 30 points more likely than those who think it is fair to prefer lower taxes and fewer services (66% to 36%). And 82% of those who say they pay too much prefer smaller government, while 71% of those who say they pay about the right amount prefer larger government.

In contrast to their growing preference for lower taxes and smaller government, many Californians favor specific taxes and increasing government funding for certain programs. For example, 6 in 10 likely voters favor raising state taxes paid by the wealthiest Californians to help reduce the state’s large gap between spending and revenues. Additionally, more than 7 in 10 in our November survey favored policies that could improve the economic well-being of Californians—such as funding for job training and for making child care available to more lower-income working parents.

Given it’s an election year, taxes will remain on Californians’ minds well beyond Tax Day as voters prepare to elect a new governor and vote on a variety of ballot measures that will impact the size of government. Stay tuned to PPIC for more on taxes throughout this year.