California public schools are in the midst of a long-running trend of declining enrollment. Enrollment fell this past year by nearly 75,000 students. Since 2015–16, enrollment has dropped in all but one year, and there are now nearly 500,000 fewer students in public TK–12 schools. Declines have been substantial in many coastal regions, while the Central Valley has seen enrollment increase. However, all but one region projects lower enrollment over the next decade.

This year, the statewide decline in enrollment accelerated. At 1.3%, the drop in enrollment in 2025–26 was over 2.5 times larger than the average annual decline experienced over the past three years. It also exceeded the decline projected by the California Department of Finance (0.2%). This difference was primarily driven by larger-than-expected declines across high school grades. Another factor was slower growth in transitional kindergarten compared to projections.

Roughly 62% of districts saw enrollment fall this past year. Nearly all these districts saw drops of less than 5%, but the declines amounted to a significant number of students in larger districts. For example, enrollment fell by roughly 4.5% in Los Angeles Unified School District, or nearly 17,000 fewer students.

Looking back several years reveals the sustained nature of these declines. Since 2015–16, two-thirds of districts have seen falling enrollment, and over half have seen declines of more than 5%. Nearly 40% have seen enrollment fall by more than 10%. Growth is less common, with 24% of districts growing more than 5% in the past decade (and 18% of districts growing more than 10%).

These patterns of growth and decline are evident across regions. The greater Los Angeles region has seen the most substantial decline (17.2% since 2015) and projects an even larger decrease (17.4%) over the next decade. Other coastal regions also project continued declines, though these are smaller in size. Conversely, enrollment has grown significantly in much of the Central Valley, with the northern valley region seeing the largest growth in the past decade (5.5%). However, projections imply this will not continue: only the Sacramento metro region expects enrollment growth (1.8%) over the coming decade.

State policymakers ought to pay careful attention to these trends, which are not unique to California. While many districts are still growing—and many more are declining at a slow to moderate pace—the enduring nature of most declines pose fiscal challenges to districts tasked with downsizing their budgets and facilities. Moreover, the longer-term projections suggest that the experience of falling enrollment will become more ubiquitous, though the size of these changes may vary.

Ensuring that downsizing is done efficiently and equitably is a considerable challenge. Whether to close schools—and which ones—can be one of the most difficult and public decisions facing a district with falling enrollment. But the challenges run beyond closures. Fiscal pressures to lower staff counts, consolidate program offerings, and reduce administrative overhead are still present whether or not a district chooses to close a school.

The good news is that falling enrollment under a robust state budget allows for higher per student funding and new funding formula opportunities. It may also compel new conversations about ways to strategically realign budgets to better support student needs. Helping districts effectively adjust their budgets to not only reflect their lower enrollment counts but also take advantage of greater resources per student should be a top priority for state education leaders.

Correction made on 5/27/26: The original post used projected rather than actual enrollment for 2025–26 to calculate regional changes. The second figure and accompanying text have been updated to use actual 2025–26 enrollment counts.