California’s public school enrollment has declined from about 6.2 million in 2014–15 to 5.8 million in 2024–25; the last time enrollment was this low was about 25 years ago—in 1998–99—when it was around 5.84 million. Since then, several broad trends have worked to shape California’s populace: immigration, migration into and out of the state, declining birth rates, and the pandemic have all contributed. How have the demographics of California’s student body changed amidst these trends?

Since 1998, the state’s student population has become increasingly Latino and less white. The drop in the share of white students has been almost completely offset by the rising share of Latinos: in 1998, shares of white and Latino students were similar (almost 40%), but by 2024–25, the share of Latino students had risen over 16 percentage points, while the share of white students fell 18 percentage points. In 2024–25, Latino students accounted for about 56% of the total student population.

In absolute terms, declining enrollment has meant falling numbers of students across most racial/ethnic subgroups in the last decade. However, there have been increases in Asian and multiracial students; the latter had the largest percentage increase over the past decade, and the share of multiracial students increased from 2.8% to 4.7% of total enrollment.

Enrollment changes have also varied across other student groups over the past decade. Here, we focus on changes during the past decade of declines, since disaggregated data by student group does not go as far back as 1998–99. The shares of students identified as having a disability, as socioeconomically disadvantaged (a category that is dominated by low-income students) have grown, while shares of migrant and foster students have declined.

Notably, the number of English Learners has fallen by around 380,000 over the past decade, accounting for most of the declines in overall enrollment. The English Learner population continued to decline (by 6.1%) in 2024–25, but most of this decline is due not to underlaying demographic shifts but to a recent policy change: Assembly Bill 2268 exempts transitional kindergarten (TK) students from taking the English Language Proficiency Assessment for California (ELPAC) that would normally determine their language status. This led to a large increase in the share of TK students whose language status was classified as “to be determined”—from about 1.5% in 2023–24 to 30% this past year.

We estimate that if a similar share of TK students had been classified as English Learners as the last year’s TK class, the overall number of TK–12 students designated as English Learners in 2024 would be about 1.06 million, compared to the 1 million students reported. This corresponds to a 24% decline in ELs over the past decade, compared to the 28% decline without.

If projections hold true, California’s public-school enrollment will continue to decline, and it is likely that the makeup of the student body will continue to shift. These demographic shifts are linked to important changes across regions, with the state’s urban and coastal regions seeing the most rapid declines. The state’s education system will need to find ways to serve a changing student body.