Enrollment fell in California’s public TK–12 schools in 2024–25 for the eighth consecutive year; roughly 5.8 million students are enrolled statewide, about 420,000 fewer than in 2014–15. This is despite the recent expansion of Transitional Kindergarten (TK); with TK excluded, the decline over the past decade is about 100,000 larger.

This year’s decline was relatively small—only about 31,500 students, or 0.5% of total enrollment—especially compared to declines of over 100,000 in each of the first two years of the pandemic. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals notable differences across grade levels and districts.

Year-to-year changes in grade-level enrollment can be hard to interpret. By comparing actual enrollment changes to state projections, we can account for differences in the size of the cohorts born each year. The state projected an overall decline of roughly 33,500 students this year, essentially matching the actual decline of 31,500 students.

Yet when we look across grades, a different picture emerges. Enrollment in TK and kindergarten was nearly 25,000 lower than expected. In particular, the state projected a large enrollment increase (over 43,000) in TK as the program has gradually expanded to all four-year-olds. But the actual increase was only 26,000, likely due to falling take-up rates as TK has expanded.

Meanwhile, enrollment in later grades exceeded projections. Despite declining in grades 1 to 12, enrollment was nearly 27,000 students higher than expected.

Higher-than-expected enrollment in later grades could reflect greater numbers of students choosing and/or remaining in public schools, fewer families opting to move out of state, and/or increased inflow of students from other states. This would be welcome news for the state’s public school system. At the same time, if smaller-than-projected TK and kindergarten cohorts become the new normal, future declines due to falling birthrates and other trends could accelerate more than anticipated.

The overall enrollment numbers also mask important differences and nuances across districts. Enrollment has fallen in nearly three-quarters of districts since the onset of the pandemic (excluding very small districts with fewer than 100 students). Moreover, in half of districts, enrollment has fallen by more than 5% over the past five years.

Enrollment fell in 57% of districts in 2024–25. It grew modestly (0%–5%) in a third of districts and substantially (5% or more) in 11% of districts. This is roughly on par with the share of districts that grew in 2022, but lower than the share of districts that grew in 2023 (47%). About 22% of school districts grew this year and have seen increased enrollment since 2019–20, before the pandemic.

Declines tend to be steeper in larger districts, especially those in coastal urban areas, while growing districts are much more likely to be in rural or suburban areas. This means that declines are affecting larger shares of students: the 57% of districts that saw declines in 2024–25 enrolled roughly 70% of the state’s students.

Growing districts tend to have higher shares of white and Asian students and lower shares of Latino students. They also have fewer low-income students, on average: roughly 66% of students in declining districts are classified as low income, compared to roughly 56% in districts that experienced growth since 2019–20.

Some of the enrollment growth in these districts is attributable to TK expansion—about 11% of districts that grew last year would have seen stable or falling enrollment if not for TK. Because TK represents a new grade level that districts need to serve, these enrollment increases may not do much to ease fiscal or operational pressures caused by declines in other grades.

Over the longer term, fiscal pressures will continue to mount in districts with sustained declines, potentially curtailing student services and forcing difficult conversations about budget cuts and/or school closures. Still, some districts are growing, and others have experienced smaller and more manageable declines in recent years. State efforts to support schools and students in declining districts need to take diverging trends across districts and regions into account.