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Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment

By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty

Over the past five years, enrollment has fallen in nearly three-quarters of California school districts, and the trend is expected to continue into the next decade. Faster declines could bring pressure to close schools, along with concerns about the students and neighborhoods bearing the costs of downsizing.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief: Factors and Future Projections for K–12 Declining Enrollment

By Julien Lafortune, Emmanuel Prunty, Stephanie Barton

California counties serving higher shares of low-income, English Learner (EL), and Asian, Black, and Latino students expect greater enrollment losses in coming years. In the past, schools that closed due to falling enrollment had more low-income and EL students as well as lower test scores than the rest of the district.

Report

Priorities for California’s Water

By Jeffrey Mount, Letitia Grenier, Ellen Hanak, Caitlin Peterson ...

California has made great strides in preparing for a drier, hotter future, but it remains a challenge to harness the bounty of wet years while also reducing flood risk. How did California’s water sector manage the unusually wet 2023 water year—and what lessons can we glean for the future?

Fact Sheet

Public Health Insurance in California

By Shalini Mustala, Paulette Cha

More than half of Californians are covered by public health insurance—mainly Medi-Cal, which covers low-income residents, and Medicare, which covers most adults aged 65 and older. The state is preparing to expand Medi-Cal to all low-income Californians, regardless of age or immigration status.

Report

Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime?

By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar

Among Californians born in 1993 and later, criminal offending has fallen 20 to 25 percent compared to previous generations. This shift in longstanding trends is a driving factor behind the overall decline in crime over the last decades and has several broader implications for the criminal justice system.

blog post

Private Schooling Played a Small Role in Declining Public School Enrollment

By Emmanuel Prunty, Julien Lafortune

Private schooling in California increased substantially during the pandemic. Still, it accounts for a small share of total K–12 enrollment and is not a major factor in public school declines, which are driven largely by broader demographic shifts.

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