In the race for the governor’s primary, likely voters currently divide their support among two Republicans and three Democrats—none with greater than 15% support: Steve Hilton (R), Katie Porter (D), Chad Bianco (R), Tom Steyer (D), and Eric Swalwell (D). At last week’s virtual briefing, survey analyst Lauren Mora discussed these and other key findings from the February statewide survey.

“There’s no clear frontrunner in the governor’s primary,” Mora said. In the December survey, Porter had a modest lead but that support has dropped as more Democrats enter the race. “The Democratic field is a lot more crowded than the Republican one … and only 5% of Republican voters are undecided.”

Six in ten likely voters cite the candidates’ position on affordability and cost of living as very important, according to Mora. At the same time, adults (32%) have chosen cost of living as the top focus for the governor and legislature heading into 2026. Californians worry about how far they can stretch their dollars: six in ten or more Californians across demographic groups and regions—along with strong majorities across income groups—feel their income is not keeping up with inflation.

The voter groups impacted most by affordability, such as young Californians, renters, and low-income residents, do not differ much from overall likely voters in the candidate they support for governor, Mora said. “It’s really anyone’s race at this point.”

The current governor announced the proposed state budget for 2026–27 in January, which about six in ten Californians favor. When it comes to the federal budget, Mora noted that three in four Californians oppose federal cuts to Medicaid, and 64% think Congress did the wrong thing allowing Affordable Care Act subsidies to expire. A majority of adults anticipate that health care will be less affordable this year.

Despite support for state spending to address federal policy changes, Californians still prefer to pay lower taxes and receive fewer services (55%) from the state government—rather than pay higher taxes for more services (44%). Seven in ten residents think they pay more in taxes than they should.

Views of the state’s future are murky, with over half saying California is headed in the wrong direction; seven in ten adults are expecting bad economic times ahead. But opinions about the country are somewhat darker: about three-quarters of Californians worry that the US is heading in the wrong direction, and 72% expect bad economic times for the country.

Mora highlighted a change in approval numbers for the president, whose second term started at 30% approval and has slipped to 25%. “Trump approval started off low among Democrats and independents,” Mora said. “But among Republicans, it has dropped by 11 points in the last year … his slight drop in approval is being driven by Republicans.” Meanwhile approval of Congress has remained quite low, sitting at 20% or less.