Ongoing political and economic uncertainties are starting to wear on residents of the Golden State. Californians are pessimistic about the direction of the state and the nation—and their own economic future. They don’t have much trust in their governments and are ambivalent about how the state funds services. What does all the gloom and doom add up to in this political moment?

The fundamentals. While California is a deep blue state, it has definite red, blue, and purple areas—which speaks to its wide range of viewpoints and economic experiences. So while Democrats hold a strong majority of party registrants, PPIC’s polling shows that most people put themselves in the middle politically—neither strongly liberal nor strongly conservative. In this respect, California is not as deeply polarized as is often thought. And it’s why the “canoe theory of politics”—paddle to the left and paddle to the right—has been a popular formula for recent governors, including Jerry Brown, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Gavin Newsom.

But there is a complicating factor in any policy agenda state leaders wish to pursue—the initiative. If Californians are unhappy, they can put their own solutions to a vote. And when governors need buy in, they have to turn to the voters through state propositions.

Key issues

Economic insecurity is pervasive. When asked to name the most important problem facing the state, Californians choose the cost of living and housing affordability. Moreover, overwhelming majorities think that the state and the nation will have bad times financially during the next 12 months, and seven in ten report that they feel like their income is not keeping up with inflation. Given these widespread concerns, it’s not too surprising that 90% say that gubernatorial candidates’ positions on the cost of living and affordability are important in determining their vote.

Trust in government is low and approval of elected officials varies. Fewer than half of Californians trust the state government and only one in four trust the federal government to do what is right “just about always” or “most of the time.” Approval also favors the state: About half approve of the way that Governor Newsom and the state legislature are handling their jobs while overwhelming majorities disapprove of the way that President Trump and the US Congress are handling theirs. Despite majority approval for Newsom, more than half say that they would like to see the next California governor mostly change policy positions rather than continue those of the current governor.

Most are doubtful that the government is run for their benefit. Few Californians believe that the federal or the state government is run for benefit of all people. Eight in ten believe that the federal government is run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, and two in three also say this of their state government. Furthermore, most see the major political parties as part of the problem: Six in ten say that they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while seven in ten have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. Amid these doubts, three in four Californians tell us that the candidates’ stands on the issues and their character are most important when they vote for governor.

Voters support social and educational programs but are conflicted about paying for them. When asked to name their top state spending priorities, most Californians point to health and human services and public education. The result is overwhelming support for increasing funds for a wide variety of safety net programs as well as early childhood education in public schools. And in the wake of Congress’s latest budget, Californians favor the state government using its own funds to offset federal cuts to Medi-Cal and CalFresh. But voters are conflicted about paying for their wish list of state programs. Many express an unwillingness to raise their own taxes to pay for more services, and the one popular idea is raising taxes on the wealthy. It’s highly anticipated that the new governor will face a large budget deficit and the likely prospect of downsizing the role of government.

Most voters want to decide on policy at the ballot box.  Californians across the political spectrum and diverse regions of the state want the public to have a voice in policymaking. Overwhelming majorities consistently say that it is a good thing that a majority of voters can make laws and change public policies by passing initiatives—and seven and ten are satisfied with the process. Most believe that the citizens’ initiative brings up important issues that the governor and legislature have not adequately addressed. In recent polling, three in four say they want the voters to make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box. This fall, Californians will decide on ballot initiatives that would extend taxes on the wealthy to pay for education and health programs, limiting the ability of local governments to raise taxes and fees and imposing a one-time tax on billionaires. The voters will want to know where the gubernatorial candidates stand on these initiatives.    

Coming up

Californians tell us that they want to learn more about the gubernatorial candidates in debates and town halls. In the wake of a frontrunner’s recent exit from the race, it is even more important for Californians voters to hear from the candidates about their values and vision for the future.

Moving forward, it will be incumbent upon the next governor to use new, readily available digital tools to check in with the public, such as the new state program called Engaged California. And, of course, nonpartisan polling—like ours—is another critical way to understand the views of all Californians.