blog post Low Crime Numbers Leveling off Under Shelter-in-Place By Magnus Lofstrom May 26, 2020 While crime rates continue to be low in major California cities, some crimes—such as burglaries and car theft—have gone up.
blog post Crime Rates Stable Overall, But Some Counties See Big Changes By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 25, 2017 Corrections reforms in California have not resulted in a broad surge in crime. But the statewide numbers mask substantial differences across counties.
blog post Recent State Crime Trends Mostly Mirror the Nation By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 8, 2021 Newly released FBI data show that trends in California’s crime rate last year—including a large and troubling jump in homicides—mostly mirrored national trends, but with some key differences.
blog post Proposition 47 and Crime By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 28, 2015 Reports of increases in violent crime in some areas have raised concerns. But it would be premature to blame Proposition 47.
event Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime? Oct 5, 2023 Historically, crime rates peak for those in their late teens and early 20s, but recent trends raise questions about whether this pattern is shifting. PPIC researcher Magnus Lofstrom will outline findings from a new report examining whether more recent generations in California are less criminally active than previous generations—or if drops in crime have occurred across all age groups. He will also discuss the broader implications of these trends for the criminal justice system.
blog post Testimony: Crime Trends in California By Magnus Lofstrom Jan 30, 2014 As legislators prepare to consider the state budget, the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee took a broad look at public safety realignment at a hearing this week. The committee invited PPIC research fellow Magnus Lofstrom to testify about the impact of this major change in corrections policy on crime in California.
blog post California’s Major Cities See Some Increases in Crime By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 9, 2020 Violent crime in four major cities—Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego, and San Francisco—is generally no higher than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but some violent crimes have increased.
Report Public Safety Realignment: Impacts So Far By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 28, 2015 Prompted by a federal court order to reduce prison overcrowding, California’s 2011 historic public safety realignment shifted many correctional responsibilities for lower-level felons from the state to counties. The reform was premised on the idea that locals can do a better job, and it was hoped that incarceration rates and corrections costs would fall. At the same time, critics predicted crime would rise. Four years since its implementation, realignment has made several important impacts: Realignment significantly reduced the prison population, but the state did not reach the court-mandated population target until after the passage of Proposition 47 in November 2014, which reduced penalties for many property and drug offenses. The reform challenged county jails and probation departments by making them responsible for a greater number of offenders with a broader range of backgrounds and needs. The county jail population did not rise nearly as much as the prison population fell, reducing the total number of people incarcerated in California. Realignment did not increase violent crime, but auto thefts rose. Research so far shows no dramatic change in recidivism rates. State corrections spending remains high, but there is reason to believe expenditures could drop in the future. Realignment has largely been successful, but the state and county correctional systems face significant challenges. The state needs to regain control of prison medical care, which is now in the hands of a federal receiver. And the state and counties together must make progress in reducing stubbornly high recidivism rates.
Report Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California By Steven Raphael, Magnus Lofstrom May 19, 2015 When California’s historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment’s first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment’s first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California’s reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California’s property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states—so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies—and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states.
