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Who’s Leaving California—and Who’s Moving In?

By Hans Johnson, Eric McGhee

The primary driver of California's population loss over the past few years has been residents moving to other states. We examine the latest demographic data for those moving out of and into our state and discuss factors that underlie these decisions.

Fact Sheet

Public Pensions in California

By Radhika Mehlotra, Patrick Murphy

State and local governments face large and growing pension obligations. This fact sheet provides a snapshot of California’s public pensions and liabilities, their impact on local budgets, and policy changes that aim to tackle rising costs.

blog post

What’s Next for California’s Public Pensions?

By Patrick Murphy, Radhika Mehlotra

A recent California Supreme Court ruling upheld a major pension reform law from 2013, but how much flexibility will policymakers have in modifying pension agreements?

blog post

Video: Gavin Newsom’s Priorities

By Linda Strean

Gavin Newsom, California’s lieutenant governor and a candidate for governor, says the most important issues facing the state are debt and demographics, energy and climate change, and the future of work.

Report

Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

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