It’s Election Day, and California is gearing up for a primary that could change the political contours of the state. In early May, 23.3 million registered voters received ballots that must be postmarked by today. Who is likely to turn out to vote and how do voters feel about their options? We take a look at the voter mood amid a chaotic election cycle.
1. Few Californians have voted; the rest are holding out until the last minute. At the start of June, over 3 million registered voters had returned a ballot. Although most voters are waiting to cast their ballot, especially given Democrats’ uncertainty over which Democratic candidate to back in the governor’s race, low returns also may signal the lukewarm turnout common for a primary.
Democrats have returned slightly more ballots than Republicans. In early returns, older and white voters have made a strong showing that aligns with past trends indicating that voters do not reflect the demographic makeup of California—the population is younger and more diverse.
2. Ballot slots for governor are up for grabs, as are seats in a slew of House districts. Every California voter has a say in which two candidates advance to November’s gubernatorial election. The Democratic field is thick with a half dozen high-profile candidates, making it possible that two Republicans might become contenders for the state’s executive role. Despite so many candidates jockeying for position, six in ten likely voters are satisfied with the choices available and feel that the top-two primary has been mostly good for California.
Last November, voters approved Proposition 50 by a wide margin, allowing the state legislature to redraw congressional districts to help Democrats gain US House seats in response to redistricting in Texas. A majority believed the special election was worth the cost and Prop 50 will benefit California. The new boundaries have created districts that favor Democrats and shaken out competitors in races to watch across Northern and Southern California.
3. Primary votes could be a clapback at the federal administration—and rising costs. A majority of likely voters point to affordability as a factor in how they may vote. Nearly 70% of Californians worry over escalating gas prices and whether they can stretch a paycheck, as a majority feel their incomes are lagging inflation. Furthermore, 60% think US military action against Iran will harm their finances. Californians have harbored a sense of doom and gloom about the economy for well over a year; today, a record high predict bad financial times ahead for the US.
4. The state of democracy has voters on edge. Many voters have also turned fatalistic about the nation’s political outlook: threats to democracy and political extremism (29%) overshadow the economy (24%) as the top US problem today. Two-thirds of likely voters still profess confidence that votes for congressional candidates will be accurately cast and counted across the country and that California’s election system remains strong. But trust in state government has wobbled for some, and an overwhelming majority have abandoned trust in the federal government.
5. Political drama may not draw out more voters. Primary elections tend to be poorly attended affairs no matter the current events or political mood. Turnout in California primaries has sometimes surpassed 50% of registered voters during presidential elections but dipped as low as 25% during off years.
The Prop 50 election itself brought a surge of Democrats, which may translate to stronger turnout. However, while 68% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting, an “enthusiasm gap” exists among Republicans (59%) and independents (47%). We’ll soon learn if motivated voters—who have watched the governor’s primary race closely (71%)—will actually turn out in June or November to express their feelings about the state of affairs.
All of this is to say: go vote. For California, June 2 is the last day to vote in person or to return a ballot for the primary election. The political future of the Golden State lies in the hands of the people who show up to vote.
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2026 Election cost of living democracy elections gas prices personal finances political extremism Political Landscape Proposition 50 redistricting Statewide Survey top-two primary trust in government US House of Representatives voter turnout votersLearn More
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